Oh boy. Is it the curse of #55? There was another young stud pitcher in the Giants organization who wore #55 once before. In his first full season he went 19-5 with a 3.18 ERA and was named to the All-Star team. He was a main cog in a Giants rebirth and he was supposed to be our ace for years to come. He was never the same after that sensational first season. Sure, he had a couple of seasons when he won 15 games but his ERA's never approached sub 4 ever again.
That man? Shawn Estes.
Now, I'm not completely lumping Shawn Estes and Tim Lincecum in the same boat. Estes is left-handed, Lincecum is right-handed. And even in his 19-5 season, Estes had control problems. His WHIP was a very average 1.30 that year and he walked 100! Lincecum is having his worst season as a pro and his WHIP is 1.34 which would still be Estes's 2nd best. However, these two pitchers share a lot more than just the number on the back of their jersey.
Estes was always considered a cerebral pitcher. There were reports he was arguably the smartest guy on the team. When he wasn't focused on pitching, he was doing crosswords. He had all the talent in the world but couldn't reign in the mental aspect so well. Big Time Timmy Jim is having mental issues right now as well. He's not pitching out there. He's thinking way too much. He has become obsessed with his mechanics and obsessed with his missing velocity and it has hindered his performance. Perhaps he's thinking way too much about Bengie Molina. Lincecum was by far Molina's biggest backer in the Giants dugout and he hasn't been the same since Molina was traded. Posey is a god king. He can hit, he can throw out baserunners, and he can actually block balls in the dirt. But somehow Lincecum misses Molina. Maybe not vocally, but you can't think that he doesn't attribute some of his poor recent performances on the fact Big Money ain't catching him no more. Timmy has become too cerebral on the mound. Something Estes was knocked for a lot in his career.
Aside from the mental aspect is the expectations. Estes was supposed to be the ace of a decent SF Giants staff and he faltered and never regained his status of ace. This year, the Giants have a very good starting staff. And Lincecum is the ringleader. He is the rock star, the steady, the constant. The fans absolutely adore him. Has it finally gotten to him? Some believe Sandoval has suffered because he soaked in too much of the adulation (those goddamn panda hats) and let it go to his head. I mean, here he was, a 23 year old sophomore hitter and the Giants based their entire offense around him. At 23, I was anchoring the boat race table and that was stressful! Did Lincecum become too lackadaisical due to his natural talent and can do no wrong acceptance by Giants fans? There was this concern after he won his first Cy Young award. But he came back, was better than the year before, and won a 2nd Cy Young. But don't forget, Randy Johnson was in the clubhouse. A veteran presence who knew what it was like to win numerous Cy Youngs and strive to continue to get better. I think Randy Johnson's veteran presence actually has been missed this year on the pitching staff. The most veteran guy they have on the staff is Barry Zito and he's one of the guys. I mean, there's Guillermo Mota but I'm not so sure that starters go to bullpenners for advice or counsel.
Lincecum seems lost. He changed his windup, then abandoned the new windup for the stretch mid-game, then abandoned the new "old" windup and went back to what got him 2 Cy Young trophies. He struck out the side in the first inning then got dinked and dunked to death by those phucking Padres. He has not consulted his father, the architect of his unique windup, because he thinks he's too old to run back to daddy. Tim, you need to run back to daddy. And the worst part is his confidence is shaken. We saw what happened when a former Cy Young award winner lost his confidence and his grip on his mechanics. Think Barry Zito 2008.
Now, I don't mean to be dramatic. Lincecum isn't going to be 2008 Zito awful from here on out. He's not even going to be Zito bad 2007. But right now, Barry Zito 2010 is better than Tim Lincecum 2010 and who saw that coming? Statistically, Tim Lincecum is now the 5th best starter in the rotation (yes, his ERA is higher than even Big Mouth Jonny Sanchez).
If you're a Giants fan, it's time to be officially worried about The Franchise. I don't see a full collapse like Estes. But Lincecum is too young to have lost 6 MPH off his fastball without raising red flags. Madison Bumgarner scared all of us last year when he came up throwing like Jamie Moyer instead of Cole Hamels but he fixed a mechanical issue and now he's settled in at 91-92 MPH which is perfectly fine. The Giants playoff hopes rely heavily on the hope that T-Linc can do the same... or else the ghost of Estes (the original #55) lurks.
That man? Shawn Estes.
Now, I'm not completely lumping Shawn Estes and Tim Lincecum in the same boat. Estes is left-handed, Lincecum is right-handed. And even in his 19-5 season, Estes had control problems. His WHIP was a very average 1.30 that year and he walked 100! Lincecum is having his worst season as a pro and his WHIP is 1.34 which would still be Estes's 2nd best. However, these two pitchers share a lot more than just the number on the back of their jersey.
Estes was always considered a cerebral pitcher. There were reports he was arguably the smartest guy on the team. When he wasn't focused on pitching, he was doing crosswords. He had all the talent in the world but couldn't reign in the mental aspect so well. Big Time Timmy Jim is having mental issues right now as well. He's not pitching out there. He's thinking way too much. He has become obsessed with his mechanics and obsessed with his missing velocity and it has hindered his performance. Perhaps he's thinking way too much about Bengie Molina. Lincecum was by far Molina's biggest backer in the Giants dugout and he hasn't been the same since Molina was traded. Posey is a god king. He can hit, he can throw out baserunners, and he can actually block balls in the dirt. But somehow Lincecum misses Molina. Maybe not vocally, but you can't think that he doesn't attribute some of his poor recent performances on the fact Big Money ain't catching him no more. Timmy has become too cerebral on the mound. Something Estes was knocked for a lot in his career.
Aside from the mental aspect is the expectations. Estes was supposed to be the ace of a decent SF Giants staff and he faltered and never regained his status of ace. This year, the Giants have a very good starting staff. And Lincecum is the ringleader. He is the rock star, the steady, the constant. The fans absolutely adore him. Has it finally gotten to him? Some believe Sandoval has suffered because he soaked in too much of the adulation (those goddamn panda hats) and let it go to his head. I mean, here he was, a 23 year old sophomore hitter and the Giants based their entire offense around him. At 23, I was anchoring the boat race table and that was stressful! Did Lincecum become too lackadaisical due to his natural talent and can do no wrong acceptance by Giants fans? There was this concern after he won his first Cy Young award. But he came back, was better than the year before, and won a 2nd Cy Young. But don't forget, Randy Johnson was in the clubhouse. A veteran presence who knew what it was like to win numerous Cy Youngs and strive to continue to get better. I think Randy Johnson's veteran presence actually has been missed this year on the pitching staff. The most veteran guy they have on the staff is Barry Zito and he's one of the guys. I mean, there's Guillermo Mota but I'm not so sure that starters go to bullpenners for advice or counsel.
Lincecum seems lost. He changed his windup, then abandoned the new windup for the stretch mid-game, then abandoned the new "old" windup and went back to what got him 2 Cy Young trophies. He struck out the side in the first inning then got dinked and dunked to death by those phucking Padres. He has not consulted his father, the architect of his unique windup, because he thinks he's too old to run back to daddy. Tim, you need to run back to daddy. And the worst part is his confidence is shaken. We saw what happened when a former Cy Young award winner lost his confidence and his grip on his mechanics. Think Barry Zito 2008.
Now, I don't mean to be dramatic. Lincecum isn't going to be 2008 Zito awful from here on out. He's not even going to be Zito bad 2007. But right now, Barry Zito 2010 is better than Tim Lincecum 2010 and who saw that coming? Statistically, Tim Lincecum is now the 5th best starter in the rotation (yes, his ERA is higher than even Big Mouth Jonny Sanchez).
If you're a Giants fan, it's time to be officially worried about The Franchise. I don't see a full collapse like Estes. But Lincecum is too young to have lost 6 MPH off his fastball without raising red flags. Madison Bumgarner scared all of us last year when he came up throwing like Jamie Moyer instead of Cole Hamels but he fixed a mechanical issue and now he's settled in at 91-92 MPH which is perfectly fine. The Giants playoff hopes rely heavily on the hope that T-Linc can do the same... or else the ghost of Estes (the original #55) lurks.
Lincecum is not built for the long run as I've said for years. When you weigh maybe 170 lbs and have to put that much strain on your body to pitch. It is easy to get out of whack and break down. I look forward to the Yankees overpaying for him in 3 years.
ReplyDeleteI agree with BNB on Lincecum not being built for this... I don't think enough people are talking about the phyiscal craziness involved in sustaininig high 90s velocity when you are his size... Long toss? Sure, lets consider that and re-program that into his off season, but I won't believe 95 plus comes back consistently... Losing velocity is never good (Foppert?)... He'll have to adjust, which is what the best pitchers do anyway... Maddux apparently could throw uber hard when he first came up, I just hope Timmy has the makeup to make such big adjustments... One thing is for sure though, Timmy demonstrated he is better than Edinson Volquez, haha
ReplyDelete