It's Opening Day week officially, with every team slated to kick off games this coming Thursday. Technically, the season has already begun with the Seoul Series in Korea where the Dodgers and Padres split a short 2-game set, but hardly any Americans got to watch it. After a slow burn of an offseason that lasted way too long, most teams have their roster set. Even so, there still are players on the market that shouldn't be: Jordan Montgomery, Tommy Pham, Mike Clevinger, Brandon Belt, and maybe not so shockingly #ForeverGiants Evan Longoria, Johnny Cueto, and Mark Melancon. Given that, barring any surprise trades or the last remaining free agents signing this week, we know what each team's roster likely will be. I had some success in my predictions last season, getting both Rookie of the Year winners correct (Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll), the AL MVP (Shohei), and 5 out of 12 playoff teams (not so great). You can see my 2023 picks here. With some major moves made by a few select teams while the majority of baseball sat out the offseason due to budget uncertainties due to TV deals, there may not be as many surprises in 2024 as there were in 2023 (the Marlins made the playoffs!). That being said, baseball always has a way of throwing curveballs in any given season (pun unashamedly intended!). Here are my predictions for 2024....
*Division winners appear in BOLD, Wildcard teams in ITALICS
AL East: ORIOLES, BLUE JAYS, Yankees, Rays, Red Sox
AL Central: TIGERS, Twins, Royals, Guardians, White Sox
AL West: ASTROS, RANGERS, MARINERS, Angels, Athletics
NL East: BRAVES, PHILLIES, Mets, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: CUBS, Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates
NL West: DODGERS, GIANTS, DBACKS, Padres, Rockies
Top 2 Seeds (AL): Orioles, Astros
Top 2 Seeds (NL): Braves, Dodgers
AL Wildcard Round: Mariners over Tigers, Rangers over Blue Jays
NL Wildcard Round: Dbacks over Cubs, Phillies over Giants
AL Divisional Round: Mariners over Orioles, Rangers over Astros
NL Divisional Round: Braves over Dbacks, Phillies over Dodgers
AL Championship: Rangers over Mariners
NL Championship: Braves over Phillies
WORLD SERIES: Braves over Rangers
AL MVP: Juan Soto, Yankees
NL MVP: Bryce Harper, Phillies
AL Cy Young: Corbin Burnes, Orioles
NL Cy Young: Spencer Strider, Braves
AL Rookie of the Year: Jackson Holliday, Orioles
NL Rookie of the Year: Jung Hoo Lee, Giants
A look at the AL East: The AL East has been up for grabs the last few seasons, with the Orioles, Rays, and Yankees all winning the division the last 3 years. The last back to back division winners was the Rays in 2020 and 2021. The Orioles shot out of a cannon to claim the #1 seed in the AL last season and they are a very good all around team, especially after trading for veteran ace Corbin Burnes. They also have the best prospect in the game in Jackson Holliday (Matt Holliday's gifted son) lurking in the wings. They also added mercurial closer Craig Kimbrel this offseason. With all their talented youth, the Orioles could and should surge to the number 1 seed again and be the division's first repeat champ since the Rays. The Blue Jays, despite being a playoff team in 2023, continue to disappoint. With a starting rotation that should be elite and a line-up that should score plenty of runs, Toronto should be better than they've been. They've been in the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 seasons but haven't been able to make it out of the wildcard round. With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr getting closer to free agency, the Jays window could be closing sooner than later. They should be in the divisional and wildcard races until the very end but their chances of being a champion for the first time since back to back World Series Championships in 1992-1993 diminish each year. The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto batting back to back this season which is scary but once opposing teams get past those two men, the Yankees line-up feels a whole lot less daunting. A lot will hinge on Gleyber Torres and some of the younger guys, but the major concern for the Yankees should be the rotation, with reigning Cy Young winner and ace Gerrit Cole set to miss at least 1-2 months. New York's rotation could really use Jordan Montgomery in it, and if they do wind up signing him, it'd do a lot for the Yankees postseason hopes. As is, without Cole, the Yanks are relying heavily on a major bounceback year from Carlos Rodon, a healthy year from Nestor Cortes Jr, and a typical Marcus Stroman year. Given how competitive the AL East is, the Yankees will need their pitching to hold up to contend. The Rays you can never write off. This season is no different. Knowing the Rays, they'll wind up with the best record in baseball but right now, their rotation looks underwhelming and their line-up looks mid. Will they be able to surprise and leapfrog any of the other would-be contenders to sneak into the playoffs? It's hard to see how but they always seem to find a way. The Red Sox are caught in between trying to be okay while also not really committing to winning. In a division that is as deep as the East, the Red Sox likely will be left far behind. They could also use Jordan Montgomery, but it's a bad sign when their lone big signing from the offseason is likely out for the year (Lucas Giolito). Look for the Sox to be sellers at the deadline (Kenley Jansen, Nick Pivetta potentially) while kinda sorta embracing a middling rebuild.
A look at the AL Central: This division continues to be the division that doesn't really try. The AL Central has a bunch of teams that refuse to spend money and really go for it. It says something when the small market Kansas City Royals were the division's biggest spenders this offseason, making modest moves that improved their squad. In fact, while it would be surprising, it wouldn't be impossible for the Royals to emerge as a division contender given how mediocre the rest of the Central seems to be. It's doubtful a wildcard team will come out of this division so if the Royals play well, they could give themselves a shot at contention. Bobby Witt turned in a superstar emergence campaign in 2023 and should be a centerpiece for the Royals for the next decade, along with promising lefty Cole Ragans. The Twins are the incumbent division champs but they did next to nothing this offseason and arguably took a step backwards. They have a legit ace in Pablo Lopez but behind him there's a bit more question marks. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are capable starters who could be much better than average, but the sum of the Twins isn't that exciting. They're putting a lot of faith in Royce Lewis staying healthy (something he's never done) and becoming a cornerstone. The Twins don't jump off the page as a talented squad and may regress to more of a .500 team. This creates a window for the Royals or the Tigers to swoop in and take the divisional crown. The Tigers don't look all that exciting on paper, but it's hard to find a true weakness with their roster. They have decent starting pitching especially if Tarik Skubal is all the way back, they have a decent bullpen, and they have a decent line-up that could become substantially better if some young guys break out like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, and top prospect Colt Keith. That's all to say, the Tigers look like a pretty decent team overall which might be good enough to win this division. The Guardians have been trying to win without power for several seasons now and it didn't work in 2023. They rely on strong pitching and fundamentals, but with the retirement of long time manager Terry Francona, the Guardians may be forced to embrace a soft rebuild. Their pitching can keep them competitive but it'll be a tall task for their offense to score enough runs to allow the Guardians to keep up if one of the other teams in the division begins to separate itself. The White Sox traded their ace Dylan Cease two weeks before the season, which basically sums up where they are at. The South Siders will be looking to rebuild and although it would be shocking, it wouldn't be crazy to see them move star outfielder Luis Robert at the deadline for a boatload of prospects to accelerate their rebuild. Their are some decent pieces still on the White Sox, but likely not enough to be any sort of threat for the postseason. Expect them to be very active as the MLB Trade Deadline approaches, with guys like Andrew Vaughn, John Brebbia, Eloy Jimenez, and Andrew Benintendi potentially being on the block along with Robert.
A look at the AL West: The Houston Astros did it again, making it back to yet another ALCS (their 7th in a row). However, their path to the AL West title was harder fought, with the upstart Texas Rangers taking it down to the final day of the season (the Astros won the division based on a tie-breaker). After winning the World Series in 2022, the Astros fell to the eventual World Series Champion Rangers in the ALCS and finally got Dusty Baker to retire for good after failing to repeat. The Mariners also gave the Astros and Rangers all they could handle, finishing only 2 games back of the division, though unfortunately for Seattle, they missed out on the playoffs by 1 game. The AL crown should be a battle royale between those 3 teams in 2024. It's hard to bet against the Astros, who've won the division every year since 2017 except the COVID year of 2020 (which we know doesn't really count). Their starting pitching health likely will determine how good they will be in 2024. Justin Verlander came back in a midseason trade last season but he's 41. Framber Valdez had a couple health scares. The rest of the rotation can be solid but they need Verlander and Valdez to be their typical top of the rotation type starters. The line-up should be as consistent as ever, with only oft-injured and just retired Michael Brantley not returning to the line-up this season. The biggest change for Houston will be the manager, with long time assistant coach Joe Espada taking the reins from Dusty. The Astros did have one notable big addition this offseason, signing elite closer Josh Hader to pair with previous closer Ryan Pressly. That gives the Astros a solid bullpen to help them make up for potential rotation inconsistencies. The World Champion Rangers oddly didn't use their postseason run to load up for a repeat. With their TV deal money in a precarious position, the Rangers oddly chose not to bring back postseason hero Jordan Montgomery, who clearly wanted to return. They hardly made any moves, opting to sign swingman Michael Lorenzen instead of splurging on Montgomery. Regardless of that odd decision, the Rangers should be in great shape. They will eventually welcome back Hall of Fame starters Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom along with the former Reds and Twins frontend starter Tyler Mahle to go with a rotation that still has Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Andrew Heaney in it. Lorenzen should help cover innings until those starters return. The line-up should be strong, with more youth on its way to help in Evan Carter for a full season and top prospect Wyatt Langford. The bullpen is a question mark, but if anyone can manage a questionable bullpen, it's future Hall of Famer Bruce Bochy. The Mariners could leapfrog both the Astros and Rangers if they have a bit more punch offensively in 2024. Their starting rotation is the envy of the league and their bullpen has consistently been strong. It's the offense that has (slightly) held the M's back from being a real threat. That may change this season with the Mariners opting to add some guys with a little less swing and miss in their game. Many expected the Mariners to sign Seattle native Blake Snell only to trade one of their young stud starting pitchers for an upgrade offensively, but that didn't come to pass. They have question marks at 3B and the OF outside of Julio Rodriguez but if they can get better offensive production and a big year from J-Rod, they could be a real threat in October. The Angels lost franchise icon Shohei Ohtani and then didn't spend any of the savings they got from his departure. They did sign a few costly bullpen arms, but aside from that, the Angels look like a team with no direction. Arte Moreno continues to be an owner that seems to be out of touch completely and the Angels may actually challenge the Las Vegas, er, still Oakland A's for last place in the division. The A's were awful in 2023, losing 112 games. They will still be awful in 2024, but perhaps slightly less so. They are still expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball playing in what will likely be a mostly empty stadium, but they do have some guys who might surprise.
A look at the NL East: The Braves are kings of the East again, having won the division for 7 seasons in a row and a World Series in 2021. However, the last two seasons they haven't been able to get by their division rival Phillies in the playoffs, with Philadelphia knocking them out of the Divisional Round both years in 4 games. It looks top heavy again, with those two teams competing for the NL East title. The Braves are frequently mentioned as one of the best run organizations in the sport and there is no reason to think they won't be in contention again not just for the division title, but for another World Series parade. The line-up remains stacked with the reigning 2023 unanimous NL MVP Ronald Acuna leading the way. The Braves have All-Stars littered throughout the infield (and at catcher) that surround Acuna not to mention a sparkplug in center in Michael Harris II. The rotation runs 4-deep with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Chris Sale. The bullpen is headlined by Raisel Iglesias who is also surrounded by a decent supporting cast. The Braves don't have a weakness aside from not getting by the Phillies, a trend they'll try to change in 2024. The Phillies will counter with their pair of aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, who've been big reasons why the Braves have had trouble with Philly in October. The rest of the Phillies rotation is also capable and with a line-up that is anchored by newly converted 1B Bryce Harper, scoring runs shouldn't be a big problem either. The Phillies problem more often than not always seems to be the bullpen. On paper, it looks like an okay squad, but not one that necessarily induces fear in hitters. Still, the Phillies and Braves should be trading blows all season for the division. The Mets are interesting in that they pulled back from their big spending ways this season and, after a very lackluster first half of 2023, traded away Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander and gave up on that season. Going into 2024, the Mets are barely garnering any attention. However, a late strike for JD Martinez does give them an offense that can still do damage. Martinez, Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso (going into a contract year) are all above average hitters who can help the Mets score runs in bunches. The issue is the pitching. Kodai Senga, a revelation in 2023, had some injury concerns early in Spring Training. Behind Senga the Mets rotation is bland, which likely limits them to wildcard contenders at best. They will get all-world closer Edwin Diaz back which will help shorten games but the Mets seem like a team that could firmy be in the wildcard hunt or, if the pitching implodes, sinks to 4th place quickly. It's clear they're more focused on returning to prominence in 2025. The Marlins were a very surprising playoff team last year, but they'll have a hard time getting back this season. The Marlins have long tried to build a team with strong homegrown starting pitching but with ace Sandy Alcantara out for the year, the onus will fall on Jesus Luzardo and sophomore Eury Perez to pick up the slack. The Fish still have a good pipeline of young pitching, but it's a bit ominous that several of the guys they were counting on have already dealt with or are dealing with injuries to start the year. The line-up likely won't be able to score enough runs to consistently support a young staff. The Marlins shouldn't be a bad team, but it's hard to see things breaking well enough for them to sneak into the playoffs for a second consecutive season. The Nationals were not as bad as some people thought they'd be in 2023 but they're still not ready to emerge as contenders. Washington will use the 2024 season to further evaluate some young guys while waiting for Patrick Corbin's contract to run out. If they finish anywhere higher than 5th place, it'll count as a successful season.
A look at the NL Central: Like their AL counterparts, the NL Central had no teams really interested in spending money this offseason. Because of that, the division is wide open. You could make an argument for any of the teams to take the crown except maybe the Pirates, who should be a fun team to follow in 2024 but likely not a contender. The Cardinals went into the offseason looking to revamp it's starting rotation and they did so, but in a very baffling fashion, striking early deals with very mediocre innings eaters Kyle Gibson and former Cardinal Lance Lynn. They did sign a potential ace in Sonny Gray, but Gray has already had some injury scares this spring. Miles Mikolas rounds out the top 4 of the rotation but who knows who'll be the 5th starter. It'll likely be Steve Matz to start and the Cardinals could be a darkhorse to sign ex-Cardinal Jordan Montgomery as well, which would certainly help their cause. Otherwise, their rotation doesn't look good at preventing runs. Their line-up is counting on a mixture of solid veterans and youth. Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, and Willson Contreras are the tried and trues, but the Cards will be hoping some of their young guys explode in a big way in 2024. Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn will be given every opportunity to shine. It was an odd offseason for St. Louis where it definitely seemed like a trade or a couple different signings would have crystallized them as the favorite. Instead, they go into the season with a lot of question marks and could finish anywhere from 1st to 4th. The Brewers looked like they were going to run it back one last time, even after their manager defected to the Cubs. But a substantial injury to their co-ace Brandon Woodruff and then a last minute trade of their other co-ace Corbin Burnes has made the Brewers dramatically weaker in the rotation. Freddy Peralta remains as the new ace, but he's followed by mediocrity. With the trade of Burnes, the Brewers seemed to announce they were going in a new direction. They've held onto Willy Adames thus far, but it would surprise no one if he were traded if Milwaukee gets off to a slow start. It seems the Brewers are going into 2024 viewing it more as a Year One for the new core, headlined by top prospect Jackson Chourio and infieder Joey Ortiz who they got back in the Burnes deal. It would rate as a mild surprise if the Brew Crew were able to hang around the wildcard for a full season. Meanwhile the Cubs are perhaps the biggest culprits of not capturing a chance to make a big impact during the offseason. Cody Bellinger sort of fell back into their lap and they threw money at Craig Counsell to become their new manager, but outside of signing Japanese star pitcher Shota Imanaga and trading for Dodgers farmhand Michael Busch, the Cubs did little to add to a team that just missed the playoffs in 2023. They have an ace in Justin Steele but Imanaga is a big question mark and behind those two there isn't much depth. The Cubs bullpen could have used a reliable arm or two as well. They addressed that with Hector Neris but could have used more. Overall, in a division that looks winnable, Chicago as the biggest market should have done more to put a contender on the field. As is, the Cubs likely will be competing for the division title and wildcard and Counsell will help keep the team scrappy, but Cubs fans should feel some disappointment more wasn't done. The Reds finished over .500 last season while introducing a good amount of young cornerstones. Elly De La Cruz looked like a superstar before fizzling out. Spencer Steer looks to be a versatile stalwart. Matt McClain was a revelation. The Reds have a lot of fun young guys. The question as always will be the pitching in Cincinnati. Can Hunter Greene fulfill his ace potential? Can bounceback candidate Frankie Montas thrive now that he's out of New York? Andrew Abbott looked like he could be a solid mid rotation guy for years to come, will he be able to repeat his rookie performance? The backend of the bullpen is headlined by Edwin Diaz's brother, Alexis, and he's every bit as good as big bro. The Reds could very easily take the division if some of the young guys take the next step or they could struggle and fall below .500 if there's a team wide sophomore slump. No matter what happens, there should be a lot of electricity at Great American Ballpark this season. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates should be decent this season. They're not ready for the spotlight and they're likely the last place team in this division, but it should be fun for Pirates fans to watch O'Neil Cruz at shortstop for a full season and eventually watch top draft pick Paul Skenes throw high 90's heat in the rotation. The Pirates know they're not quite ready for the fight, but they're continually adding talent that should have them competing for the division in coming seasons. Plus, it could be all around good guy Andrew McCutchen's last season on the field. Worth the watch.
A look at the NL West: The rich get richer. The Dodgers didn't really try last offseason, with many people thinking they were holding their chips for Shohei Ohtani in 2024. On paper, the Dodgers roster while still very talented had a lot of question marks. They were putting a lot of faith in some young players to pan out and it kind of felt the Dodgers were okay with seeing how the 2023 season began before evaluating at the All Star Break. Well, whatever devil magic they used worked, because despite a roster that was top heavy, they still managed to win 100 games and run away with the division by 16 games. Incredibly, they did it without much of their pitching staff for most of the year. Clayton Kershaw sustained his normal ouchies, Walker Buehler was recovering from Tommy John, Julio Urias got busted for being a domestic abuser for a second time, and Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May went out with serious injuries too. By the time the playoffs started, the Dodgers had to rely on Kershaw and a bunch of rookies. They were swept by the upstart Dbacks. Fast forward to this offseason and the Dodgers reloaded. Not only did they land their prize in Shohei Ohtani, they signed arguably the best free agent pitcher as well, Japanese export Yoshinobu Yamamoto. On top of that they traded for Tyler Glasnow and signed power hitting outfielder Teoscar Hernandez. A Dodgers team that was already loaded got even more loaded. But winning the offseason never guarantees anything, and the Dodgers are already facing questions given Shohei Ohtani's gambling scandal that involved his long time interpreter. Will that drama cast a cloud over the team all season? We shall see. Yamamoto also had an uninspiring spring and didn't make it to the second inning in his first regular season game as an MLB starter. That being said, the Dodgers have too much talent and after I stupidly penciled them in for 3rd place last season, I've learned my lesson. Never underestimate the proven winners. While the NL West looks to be more competitive in 2024 than it was in 2023, the Dodgers should remain the lords of the division. The Giants waited out the market and wound up having one of their best offseasons in years. The disappointment of losing out (again) on their key targets of Ohtani and Yamamoto have been replaced with cautious optimism about what could be a solid playoff caliber squad in 2024. San Francisco added Korean star outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, right handed juggernaut Jorge Soler, third base defensive whiz Matt Chapman, and the NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. On top of that, they swapped out Gabe Kapler for old school Bob Melvin. The vibes were off for awhile but have they returned to the City by the Bay? Potentially! They now boast a rotation that has the Cy Young winner (Snell) and runner up to the Cy Young (Logan Webb). They also have the top LHP prospect in their rotation for a full season (Kyle Harrison) and have All Star Alex Cobb returning sometime in April. On top of that, they have 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray rehabbing and coming back mid-season, who came over in a trade with Seattle. If the Giants rotation is fully healthy at any point, it may lay claim to the best 1-5 in baseball. It's a big if, but the potential is there. The line-up has length with the addition of Lee, Chapman, and Soler with hopes that left fielder Michael Conforto will have a bounceback year after returning to baseball action last season. The bullpen is headlined by fireballing closer Camilo Doval and the bullpen in general should be a strength. The Giants might not have the firepower to take down LA, but they should be firmly in the mix for a wildcard slot. The Dbacks were the David to LA's Goliath last season, knocking LA out of the playoffs en route to a shocking World Series run. Everything went right for Arizona last season, highlighted by Corbin Carroll's Rookie of the Year campaign, their two co-aces in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly providing plenty of innings, and their GM making a key trade for a solid closer in Paul Sewald at the deadline. The Dbacks were the proverbial team that got hot at the right time and tore through the playoffs, sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers before knocking out the Phillies in 7 games. Brandon Pfaadt emerged as a key contributor and is expected to be a big part of the rotation in 2024. Instead of basking in the glow of an unexpected World Series run, the Dbacks went out and got better, re-signing the solid Lourdes Gurriel Jr and signing solid lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to round out their rotation. They upgraded at 3B by trading for Eugenio Suarez and got a solid DH in Joc Pederson. They should absolutely be in the mix for a wildcard and second place in the West. The Padres are somewhat of an enigma now. The catalyst of their spending and go-for-it attitude owner Peter Seidler passed away in the offseason. His remaining partners seem to want to continue contending while also cutting corners. They traded away perennial MVP candidate Juan Soto to the Yankees and let Cy Young winner Blake Snell walk away to a division rival and did nothing to retain/replace closer Josh Hader. They also "traded" their manager Bob Melvin to the Giants for nothing. For most of the offseason, it looked like the Padres would not make any significant additions, but San Diego General Manager AJ Preller can't rest on his laurels and traded for White Sox ace Dylan Cease just before the Padres season opener in Korea. Cease joins Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove in the rotation to create a new "Big 3". Michael King acquired in the Soto trade is penciled as the 4th starter. The line-up still has Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts in it and Korean star Ha Seong Kim. Will the Padres have enough pitching to allow them to keep up with LA, SF, and AZ? TBD and if the remaining owners aren't willing to allow Preller to spend more, he'll have to get creative to even out the squad. Despite that, the Padres remain a dangerous team on any given night, and they usually do better when expectations are lowered. It's not crazy to think this team could surprise and challenge for the 2nd spot in the division and a wildcard. The Rockies on the other hand are likely to be contending only for a spot in the draft lottery. Colorado is closer to competing with the A's and White Sox for potentially the worst team in baseball than they are to threatening for a playoff spot. Until the Rockies hunker down and truly plan to rebuild properly, they'll be in a frustrating spot where they remain irrelevant.
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