Post updated due to MLB's decision to expand playoffs from 10 to 16 teams last minute!
Hooboy. My last post about the San Francisco Giants or baseball was February of 2019 and I was pining for the Giants to swoop in and sign Bryce Harper. Not much has happened since then, right? I mean, Bryce Harper's a Phillie, the Nationals won the World Series in their first year without him, and the Dodgers are still enduring an epic championship drought. Personally, I went and traveled the world for a year, moved to Austin, and was welcomed back with a pandemic of historic proportions that has shut down literally everything. So the status quo essentially.
Baseball though! As I write this we're a couple days from Opening Day! Nevermind that it's late July. To put things into context, in 10 days, the MLB Trade Deadline should be occurring. Instead, we'll be one week into a truncated 60 game regular season with re-aligned schedules so teams don't have to travel very far, because, you know, this little thing called COVID-19. And the NL will have a DH. Wild times, man.
What little can change over the course of not writing about baseball for a year and a half, amirite?
All sarcasm aside, it's time to dust off this blog and get back to doing what I love, writing about the San Francisco Giants. Except, I won't really be doing that today. Today I'm going to break my silence by predicting the wackiness of this 60 game season that may not even see its completion. My Giants thoughts will be saved for another day (er, post). With all that being said, here we go, my predictions for this totally normal 2020 Major League Baseball season...
(Division winners bolded, wildcard teams italicized)
AL East: Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central: Twins, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Tigers
AL West: A's, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Mariners
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Dbacks, Padres, Rockies, Giants
ALWC: Rays over White Sox, Twins over Angels, A's over Indians, Astros over Yankees
NLWC: Nationals over Dbacks, Dodgers over Mets, Reds over Brewers, Cubs over Braves
ALDS: Rays over Astros, Twins over A's
NLDS: Dodgers over Cubs, Reds over Nationals
ALCS: Rays over Twins
NLCS: Reds over Dodgers
World Series: Rays over Reds
A look at the AL East: This division doesn't look as competitive as it normally does. The Orioles are in year 50 of their rebuild (ok, it just seems that way but this team was actually in the playoffs the last time the Giants were, in 2016!), the Blue Jays are probably a year away from legit contention even with the addition of Hyun-Jin Ryu and they would need to have everything break right with their youngsters to surprise while the Red Sox are missing Chris Sale and Mookie Betts. There seems to be a big divide between the Rays and Yankees and the rest of the division. While the Red Sox and Jays could put together winning campaigns, I don't think there will be enough to supplant the top dogs in the division. The AL East should be a dogfight between a terrifying and healthy offense from the Yankees, along with a bright and shiny Gerrit Cole donning pinstripes, and incredible depth and fantastic starting pitching from the Rays. As always, I give the edge to the pitching depth and see the Rays sneaking past New York for the division.
A look at the AL Central: The central is starting to get more competitive. The Indians had a clear path to the division title for years but got lazy and overconfident which allowed the Twins to come out of nowhere and take it from them last season. The Twins won't surprise anyone this year but their line-up got even deeper with Josh Donaldson. Add a full year of Miguel Sano as well and the Twins are going to outslug every other team in their division. Their pitching is improved, highlighted by two Dodgers exports in Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill. The line-up will score tons of runs and the Twins pitching merely has to be average to win. They will be. Meanwhile, the Indians traded away Corey Kluber but they still have a trio of above-average starters in Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and Carlos Carrasco. Their line-up isn't as deep as Minnesota's but they do still have Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Santana and a great closer in Brad Hand. That should be enough to keep them in the division and wildcard hunt but I see them just missing a playoff spot. The White Sox are the most interesting team to me, they could be awful or they could rise like the Twins and take the division. Their line-up is better with Edwin Encarnacion and the imminent arrival of Luis Robert and the rotation is anchored by breakout pitcher Lucas Giolito. That all said, I think the White Sox are one more transition year away from making a push. The Royals and the Tigers will battle for 4th place in the division, with the Royals seemingly having more talent on the current MLB roster. The Tigers will collect another high draft pick and should be contenders in the next couple of years.
A look at the AL West: Do we need to mention the Houston Astros cheating scandal? 2020 was supposed to be a year of reckoning for the Astros for a 2017 season in which they perhaps stole a World Series championship. There was going to be mass booing and trash can beating to taunt the disgraced franchise everywhere they went on the road. Except, you know, COVID-19, which means no fans in the stands. The Astros comeuppance will have to wait until 2021 though their players may still get plunked more than usual in this short season from opposing pitchers. They still have a great line-up but their rotation definitely took a hit with Gerrit Cole leaving even with a Verlander/Greinke combo. In the year of 2020, where nothing is going right, it would be sort of fitting to see the sport's biggest current enemy rise from the ashes and win the World Series, and because it's 2020 I was tempted to crown them champs, but I just don't think they have the pitching to do it this year. In fact, I see the not-so-scrappy anymore A's wresting the division from them. The A's have some solid starting pitching and a young lineup that keeps getting better. They were keeping pace with the Astros for most of 2019 before the Astros separated themselves and in a short season, I am giving the edge to that other Bay Area team. The talent drops off after the A's and Astros, but the Angels and Rangers are both improved. The Angels still don't have enough starting pitching to truly contend even with Shohei Ohtani coming back from Tommy John surgery despite adding Anthony Rendon to an offense anchored by the game's best player in Mike Trout. The Rangers were better than expected last season but I expect them to fall back to earth a bit in 2020. They did add to their pitching, most notably getting Corey Kluber, but that won't be enough for an inconsistent offense. The Mariners are in a perpetual middle ground of mediocrity and their fans will have to wait probably at least two more seasons before they can start dreaming of breaking the game's longest playoff drought.
A look at the NL East: Four of the five teams in the NL East could potentially win the division, especially in a 60 game sprint. However, looking at the Phillies I just don't think they have the starting pitching to overtake the rest of the teams they'd have to beat despite stealing Zack Wheeler from the Mets. Even with Bryce Harper in Year 2 of 13 with the Phils and Andrew McCutchen being healthy and Didi Gregorious manning shortstop, I think the other teams would have to falter to give Philly a shot. The Phils could be good, but not good enough, and a lot depends on whether Aaron Nola can return to being an ace. The Marlins may actually be an interesting team to watch in 2020. Their starting pitching could be sneaky decent and they added some vets to their line-up that have some upside. That being said, there's no way the Fish are lured into contention this year. The Mets, Braves, and Nationals though all have some serious arguments to make about who gets the divisional crown. The Mets lost Noah Syndergaard for the year to injury but they're actually getting back Yoenis Cespedes! Remember that guy!? Their line-up is actually pretty strong 1-9 and I'd actually pick the Mets to win the division if Syndergaard hadn't gotten hurt. With Jacon deGrom and Marcus Stroman the top two starters however, I don't see the Mets pitching doing what it needs to snag a playoff spot, even if their bullpen has potential to be lights out. The Braves were really good last season and didn't really do much to get any better or worse this season so they'll be in contention by default. They should have done more in the starting pitching market besides sign Cole Hamels and that is why they'll cede the division to the defending World Series champs, the Washington Nationals. The Nats lost Anthony Rendon but made up for his departure by signing some high risk, high upside guys like Starlin Castro and Eric Thames to replace him. Their starting pitching is still anchored by Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin and that's one of the best trio's in the game. Juan Soto and Victor Robles will be one year better as well. It's the Nats division to lose.
A look at the NL Central: The central is like the east, there are legitimately four teams that can take this division. The Cardinals won it last year but looking at their roster, it's hard to imagine how they'll repeat their success. They rode the back of Jack Flaherty and it's unlikely he puts another stretch together like he did in the 2nd half of 2019 when he was basically unhittable. As always, the Cards have up and coming young talent but I don't think they have enough currently to fend off and protect their divisional crown. The Pirates will trade Josh Bell either at this year's deadline or next offseason which will make the Bucs borderline unwatchable. They were already missing Jameson Taillon and honestly, they don't have much going on at the moment to make fans excited. They're going full rebuild after trading their STARling Marte to the Dbacks in the winter. The Brewers never seem to have enough starting pitching yet they have made the playoffs the past two seasons. Brandon Woodruff has emerged as a potential ace and the Crew added Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak, and Omar Narvaez to their line-up to help perennial MVP candidate Christian Yelich pursue a World Series. As I feel every year, I just don't think they have enough pitching to slip in this year. The Cubs and the Reds seem to be the darlings this year. The Reds made a bunch of moves to contend and they should pay off. Luis Castillo established himself as an ace and he's complimented by Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. The backend of their rotation isn't bad either with Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley and their bullpen should be good enough. The addition of Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Japanese import Shogo Akiyama bolster an offense had some interesting young talent around it already. I expect the Reds to not only be in contention but to make bold moves at the trade deadline to enhance their chances at a World Series title. They have enough offense and enough pitching already to be contenders and they may just need one or two pieces to be a legit force. The Cubs, on the other hand, will rely on Yu Darvish big time to be the revived ace from the latter half of 2019. The Cubs did next to nothing to improve on a team that underachieved in Joe Maddon's last season but a rebound would help get the Cubs into division and wildcard contention and in this short season, I see them being dangerous.
A look at the NL West: The division is slowly getting better. There are fewer doormats for the Dodgers to walk all over en route to division title after division title. Unfortunately, as a Giants fan, the doormat this year seems to be the San Francisco squad. I'll cover that more in my SF Giants season preview but for now, the Giants don't have anywhere near the talent on the MLB roster to realistically compete for the playoffs. If anything, Farhan Zaidi and new manager Gabe Kapler will hope the veterans on the team show value immediately so they can be traded by the deadline. Aside from the Giants, the Rockies were barely any better last season. After back to back playoff appearance in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies fell apart in 2019. There was a whole lot of Nolan Arenado drama this past offseason and he's likely not going to be in Colorado much longer after voicing his displeasures with the franchise. Whether that's this season or next offseason we shall see but the Rockies will need to reverse fortunes and hope everything that went wrong in 2019 goes right in 2020. Given the improved rosters of San Diego and Arizona, I don't see the Rox being anything other than better than the Giants in 2020. The Padres seemingly always are the experts' sleeper team and they always have amazing prospects and blah blah blah. The Padres still haven't seen October since 2006. I've stopped believing the hype and until the Friars can actually put together a full season where they actually contend, I suggest you do too! Yes, Fernando Tatis Jr seems to be a superstar in the making, but of course he got hurt and missed a ton of games in his debut season last year. Chris Paddack does seem to be a legit starter but what about all the other prospects we used to hear about? They've mostly all been traded away now, making way for transplants like Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham. The Padres have spent money in recent years signing Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado and their starting pitching is at least intriguing this season with, wait for it, exciting shiny prospects on the brink of joining them! Again, until the Padres prove the hype is real, I don't see them seriously making a run at the wildcard or division. I feel much differently about the Dbacks. I actually thought about predicting the Dbacks would win the NL West this season, with their additions of Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte, and power hitting (and former ASU Sun Devil) Kole Calhoun joining the team. Alas, the Dodgers talent is too good to overcome. Arizona is seemingly good, not great, in all phases of the game. They don't have one area where they're great. But good all around is not a bad place to be and I think they'll seriously contend for a wildcard slot. The Dodgers still reign supreme though and should easily capture their 8th straight divisional title. Their starting pitching took a hit by losing Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda but they have enough depth to get by. Their line-up, which was already really good, got ridiculously better by adding Mookie Betts. The Dodgers likely have the best line-up in the National League now and arguably in baseball. My only hope is that some team will stop them in the playoffs.
2020 Awards Predictions
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
AL CYA: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
NL CYA: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
AL ROY: Luis Robert, White Sox
NL ROY: Carter Kieboom, Nationals
Hooboy. My last post about the San Francisco Giants or baseball was February of 2019 and I was pining for the Giants to swoop in and sign Bryce Harper. Not much has happened since then, right? I mean, Bryce Harper's a Phillie, the Nationals won the World Series in their first year without him, and the Dodgers are still enduring an epic championship drought. Personally, I went and traveled the world for a year, moved to Austin, and was welcomed back with a pandemic of historic proportions that has shut down literally everything. So the status quo essentially.
Baseball though! As I write this we're a couple days from Opening Day! Nevermind that it's late July. To put things into context, in 10 days, the MLB Trade Deadline should be occurring. Instead, we'll be one week into a truncated 60 game regular season with re-aligned schedules so teams don't have to travel very far, because, you know, this little thing called COVID-19. And the NL will have a DH. Wild times, man.
What little can change over the course of not writing about baseball for a year and a half, amirite?
All sarcasm aside, it's time to dust off this blog and get back to doing what I love, writing about the San Francisco Giants. Except, I won't really be doing that today. Today I'm going to break my silence by predicting the wackiness of this 60 game season that may not even see its completion. My Giants thoughts will be saved for another day (er, post). With all that being said, here we go, my predictions for this totally normal 2020 Major League Baseball season...
(Division winners bolded, wildcard teams italicized)
AL East: Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles
AL Central: Twins, Indians, White Sox, Royals, Tigers
AL West: A's, Astros, Angels, Rangers, Mariners
NL East: Nationals, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Marlins
NL Central: Reds, Cubs, Brewers, Cardinals, Pirates
NL West: Dodgers, Dbacks, Padres, Rockies, Giants
ALWC: Rays over White Sox, Twins over Angels, A's over Indians, Astros over Yankees
NLWC: Nationals over Dbacks, Dodgers over Mets, Reds over Brewers, Cubs over Braves
ALDS: Rays over Astros, Twins over A's
NLDS: Dodgers over Cubs, Reds over Nationals
ALCS: Rays over Twins
NLCS: Reds over Dodgers
World Series: Rays over Reds
A look at the AL East: This division doesn't look as competitive as it normally does. The Orioles are in year 50 of their rebuild (ok, it just seems that way but this team was actually in the playoffs the last time the Giants were, in 2016!), the Blue Jays are probably a year away from legit contention even with the addition of Hyun-Jin Ryu and they would need to have everything break right with their youngsters to surprise while the Red Sox are missing Chris Sale and Mookie Betts. There seems to be a big divide between the Rays and Yankees and the rest of the division. While the Red Sox and Jays could put together winning campaigns, I don't think there will be enough to supplant the top dogs in the division. The AL East should be a dogfight between a terrifying and healthy offense from the Yankees, along with a bright and shiny Gerrit Cole donning pinstripes, and incredible depth and fantastic starting pitching from the Rays. As always, I give the edge to the pitching depth and see the Rays sneaking past New York for the division.
A look at the AL Central: The central is starting to get more competitive. The Indians had a clear path to the division title for years but got lazy and overconfident which allowed the Twins to come out of nowhere and take it from them last season. The Twins won't surprise anyone this year but their line-up got even deeper with Josh Donaldson. Add a full year of Miguel Sano as well and the Twins are going to outslug every other team in their division. Their pitching is improved, highlighted by two Dodgers exports in Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill. The line-up will score tons of runs and the Twins pitching merely has to be average to win. They will be. Meanwhile, the Indians traded away Corey Kluber but they still have a trio of above-average starters in Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, and Carlos Carrasco. Their line-up isn't as deep as Minnesota's but they do still have Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Santana and a great closer in Brad Hand. That should be enough to keep them in the division and wildcard hunt but I see them just missing a playoff spot. The White Sox are the most interesting team to me, they could be awful or they could rise like the Twins and take the division. Their line-up is better with Edwin Encarnacion and the imminent arrival of Luis Robert and the rotation is anchored by breakout pitcher Lucas Giolito. That all said, I think the White Sox are one more transition year away from making a push. The Royals and the Tigers will battle for 4th place in the division, with the Royals seemingly having more talent on the current MLB roster. The Tigers will collect another high draft pick and should be contenders in the next couple of years.
A look at the AL West: Do we need to mention the Houston Astros cheating scandal? 2020 was supposed to be a year of reckoning for the Astros for a 2017 season in which they perhaps stole a World Series championship. There was going to be mass booing and trash can beating to taunt the disgraced franchise everywhere they went on the road. Except, you know, COVID-19, which means no fans in the stands. The Astros comeuppance will have to wait until 2021 though their players may still get plunked more than usual in this short season from opposing pitchers. They still have a great line-up but their rotation definitely took a hit with Gerrit Cole leaving even with a Verlander/Greinke combo. In the year of 2020, where nothing is going right, it would be sort of fitting to see the sport's biggest current enemy rise from the ashes and win the World Series, and because it's 2020 I was tempted to crown them champs, but I just don't think they have the pitching to do it this year. In fact, I see the not-so-scrappy anymore A's wresting the division from them. The A's have some solid starting pitching and a young lineup that keeps getting better. They were keeping pace with the Astros for most of 2019 before the Astros separated themselves and in a short season, I am giving the edge to that other Bay Area team. The talent drops off after the A's and Astros, but the Angels and Rangers are both improved. The Angels still don't have enough starting pitching to truly contend even with Shohei Ohtani coming back from Tommy John surgery despite adding Anthony Rendon to an offense anchored by the game's best player in Mike Trout. The Rangers were better than expected last season but I expect them to fall back to earth a bit in 2020. They did add to their pitching, most notably getting Corey Kluber, but that won't be enough for an inconsistent offense. The Mariners are in a perpetual middle ground of mediocrity and their fans will have to wait probably at least two more seasons before they can start dreaming of breaking the game's longest playoff drought.
A look at the NL East: Four of the five teams in the NL East could potentially win the division, especially in a 60 game sprint. However, looking at the Phillies I just don't think they have the starting pitching to overtake the rest of the teams they'd have to beat despite stealing Zack Wheeler from the Mets. Even with Bryce Harper in Year 2 of 13 with the Phils and Andrew McCutchen being healthy and Didi Gregorious manning shortstop, I think the other teams would have to falter to give Philly a shot. The Phils could be good, but not good enough, and a lot depends on whether Aaron Nola can return to being an ace. The Marlins may actually be an interesting team to watch in 2020. Their starting pitching could be sneaky decent and they added some vets to their line-up that have some upside. That being said, there's no way the Fish are lured into contention this year. The Mets, Braves, and Nationals though all have some serious arguments to make about who gets the divisional crown. The Mets lost Noah Syndergaard for the year to injury but they're actually getting back Yoenis Cespedes! Remember that guy!? Their line-up is actually pretty strong 1-9 and I'd actually pick the Mets to win the division if Syndergaard hadn't gotten hurt. With Jacon deGrom and Marcus Stroman the top two starters however, I don't see the Mets pitching doing what it needs to snag a playoff spot, even if their bullpen has potential to be lights out. The Braves were really good last season and didn't really do much to get any better or worse this season so they'll be in contention by default. They should have done more in the starting pitching market besides sign Cole Hamels and that is why they'll cede the division to the defending World Series champs, the Washington Nationals. The Nats lost Anthony Rendon but made up for his departure by signing some high risk, high upside guys like Starlin Castro and Eric Thames to replace him. Their starting pitching is still anchored by Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin and that's one of the best trio's in the game. Juan Soto and Victor Robles will be one year better as well. It's the Nats division to lose.
A look at the NL Central: The central is like the east, there are legitimately four teams that can take this division. The Cardinals won it last year but looking at their roster, it's hard to imagine how they'll repeat their success. They rode the back of Jack Flaherty and it's unlikely he puts another stretch together like he did in the 2nd half of 2019 when he was basically unhittable. As always, the Cards have up and coming young talent but I don't think they have enough currently to fend off and protect their divisional crown. The Pirates will trade Josh Bell either at this year's deadline or next offseason which will make the Bucs borderline unwatchable. They were already missing Jameson Taillon and honestly, they don't have much going on at the moment to make fans excited. They're going full rebuild after trading their STARling Marte to the Dbacks in the winter. The Brewers never seem to have enough starting pitching yet they have made the playoffs the past two seasons. Brandon Woodruff has emerged as a potential ace and the Crew added Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak, and Omar Narvaez to their line-up to help perennial MVP candidate Christian Yelich pursue a World Series. As I feel every year, I just don't think they have enough pitching to slip in this year. The Cubs and the Reds seem to be the darlings this year. The Reds made a bunch of moves to contend and they should pay off. Luis Castillo established himself as an ace and he's complimented by Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray. The backend of their rotation isn't bad either with Anthony DeSclafani and Wade Miley and their bullpen should be good enough. The addition of Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, and Japanese import Shogo Akiyama bolster an offense had some interesting young talent around it already. I expect the Reds to not only be in contention but to make bold moves at the trade deadline to enhance their chances at a World Series title. They have enough offense and enough pitching already to be contenders and they may just need one or two pieces to be a legit force. The Cubs, on the other hand, will rely on Yu Darvish big time to be the revived ace from the latter half of 2019. The Cubs did next to nothing to improve on a team that underachieved in Joe Maddon's last season but a rebound would help get the Cubs into division and wildcard contention and in this short season, I see them being dangerous.
A look at the NL West: The division is slowly getting better. There are fewer doormats for the Dodgers to walk all over en route to division title after division title. Unfortunately, as a Giants fan, the doormat this year seems to be the San Francisco squad. I'll cover that more in my SF Giants season preview but for now, the Giants don't have anywhere near the talent on the MLB roster to realistically compete for the playoffs. If anything, Farhan Zaidi and new manager Gabe Kapler will hope the veterans on the team show value immediately so they can be traded by the deadline. Aside from the Giants, the Rockies were barely any better last season. After back to back playoff appearance in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies fell apart in 2019. There was a whole lot of Nolan Arenado drama this past offseason and he's likely not going to be in Colorado much longer after voicing his displeasures with the franchise. Whether that's this season or next offseason we shall see but the Rockies will need to reverse fortunes and hope everything that went wrong in 2019 goes right in 2020. Given the improved rosters of San Diego and Arizona, I don't see the Rox being anything other than better than the Giants in 2020. The Padres seemingly always are the experts' sleeper team and they always have amazing prospects and blah blah blah. The Padres still haven't seen October since 2006. I've stopped believing the hype and until the Friars can actually put together a full season where they actually contend, I suggest you do too! Yes, Fernando Tatis Jr seems to be a superstar in the making, but of course he got hurt and missed a ton of games in his debut season last year. Chris Paddack does seem to be a legit starter but what about all the other prospects we used to hear about? They've mostly all been traded away now, making way for transplants like Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham. The Padres have spent money in recent years signing Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado and their starting pitching is at least intriguing this season with, wait for it, exciting shiny prospects on the brink of joining them! Again, until the Padres prove the hype is real, I don't see them seriously making a run at the wildcard or division. I feel much differently about the Dbacks. I actually thought about predicting the Dbacks would win the NL West this season, with their additions of Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte, and power hitting (and former ASU Sun Devil) Kole Calhoun joining the team. Alas, the Dodgers talent is too good to overcome. Arizona is seemingly good, not great, in all phases of the game. They don't have one area where they're great. But good all around is not a bad place to be and I think they'll seriously contend for a wildcard slot. The Dodgers still reign supreme though and should easily capture their 8th straight divisional title. Their starting pitching took a hit by losing Rich Hill and Kenta Maeda but they have enough depth to get by. Their line-up, which was already really good, got ridiculously better by adding Mookie Betts. The Dodgers likely have the best line-up in the National League now and arguably in baseball. My only hope is that some team will stop them in the playoffs.
2020 Awards Predictions
AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels
NL MVP: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
AL CYA: Gerrit Cole, Yankees
NL CYA: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
AL ROY: Luis Robert, White Sox
NL ROY: Carter Kieboom, Nationals
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