MLB Predictions 2021: Back to Normalcy?

All right, so we are days away from Opening Day, a legit Opening Day, one in April, where as of right now there will no be DH in the NL, no expanded playoffs, and a full 162 game schedule. It's almost like 2020 never happened, which would be great for everyone given how the 2020 MLB season ended. We won't talk about it. That being said, I will talk about my 2020 predictions. I got 7 out of 8 AL teams right in terms of qualifying for the playoffs and 5 out of 8 NL squads, though my seeding was a bit off. I did have the Rays in the World Series but had them facing the Reds and not facing... whatever team they wound up playing and losing to in six games in that sham World Series. I also had a whopping 0 correct picks with my season end awards. Has that ever stopped me from predicting before? Heck no! So with baseball season two days away, here are my very well thought out predictions for the 2021 season. I can't wait for a real season, where a real World Series champ will be crowned for the first time since 2019. Oh, and I hope you enjoy the new digs, I felt it was time to go to a more streamlined and Giants-y theme in 2021. You know, the Giants put the names back on their home jerseys (barf) so, you know, I thought I'd do a completely unnecessary update as well. Cheers to the 2021 MLB Baseball season!

(Division winners bolded, wildcards italicized)

AL East: Yankees, Blue Jays, Rays, Red Sox, Orioles
AL Central: White Sox, Twins, Indians, Royals, Tigers 
AL West: Athletics, Astros, Mariners, Angels, Rangers

NL East: Braves, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Marlins
NL Central: Brewers, Cardinals, Reds, Cubs, Pirates 
NL West: Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Dbacks, Rockies 

ALWC: Astros over Blue Jays
NLWC: Mets over Dodgers 

ALDS: Yankees over Astros, White Sox over A's
NLDS: Padres over Mets, Braves over Brewers

ALCS: Yankees over White Sox
NLCS: Padres over Braves 

World Series: Padres over Yankees

A look at the AL East: The Yankees made some interesting moves when it came to their rotation this offseason, betting a lot on talent that has been injured, but there's no arguing if that rotation stays healthy, it's stacked. Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Corey Kluber, and Jameson Taillon? It could arguably be the Yankees best rotation in years. Or, it could all fall apart if these injury prone pitchers stay injury prone. But the combination of the Yankees rotation, line-up, and bullpen make them arguably the best team in the American League and on paper they don't have much competition in the East. The Blue Jays line-up is a behemoth, but beyond Ryu, the rotation is mostly question marks or guys that are mid/backend starters and with Kirby Yates requiring Tommy John surgery, their bullpen is unsettled. That may give the Rays an opportunity to seize a wildcard spot, but I'm just not impressed with the Rays offseason after making the World Series. They let Charlie Morton and Blake Snell go and replaced them with Chris Archer and Rich Hill. The Rays always find ways to stay competitive and their bullpen should still be elite but I don't see enough offense from them to overcome the losses in their rotation, even if they have guys emerge like they always seem to do. The Red Sox are an interesting team. They could be sneaky good or they could be largely mediocre, or they could be bad. Right now, they don't seem to have enough to compete with the other teams in their division which makes the playoffs unlikely. The Orioles are still rebuilding and may be one of the worst teams in the league. 

A look at the AL Central: It feels like this division likes to go in cycles, each team has had opportunities to go to the postseason the last decade, and only the Twins and White Sox haven't made it to the World Series in that time. The Tigers owned the early decade from 2011-2014, the Royals snuck in a division title (and became World Series champs) in 2015, the Indians took the crown from 2016-2018, and the Twins reclaimed it the last two seasons. Now it seems to be the White Sox turn. The White Sox made the playoffs last season as a wildcard and look to be the most balanced team in the AL Central this year. They have a front office that appears to be going for it and who went out and upgraded the closer position with Liam Hendriks and traded for Lance Lynn to add to their rotation. They have the reigning AL MVP in Jose Abreu but they also have exciting young players that should keep improving, like Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Nick Madrigal (unfortunately Eloy Jimenez looks to miss a lot of time due to injury). The Twins are likely their biggest competition this season in the division. Minnesota is coming off back to back division titles and while the hitting has been their trademark, their pitching is decent, if unspectacular. Meanwhile, the Indians have gone the cheap route but they, like the Rays, always seem to procure pitching out of nowhere and they have the reigning unanimous AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber fronting a rotation that still has plenty of potential despite losing Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco. The Indians could be a real threat if their offense can score runs, but they traded away franchise star Francisco Lindor and beyond their remaining franchise superstar Jose Ramirez it's difficult to see where that offense comes from. The Royals are on the path of contention, but a lot would have to go right for them to truly contend in 2021. The Tigers, like the Orioles, are still right in the middle of their rebuild and don't look to be a factor for a couple more seasons. 

A look at the AL West: This division is a crapshoot. The A's won the division last year, but they hardly did anything to augment the roster and improve it. They lost a couple key guys and replaced them with guys who are just not as good. With the A's, it comes to their players hitting their potential. They have to hope for rebound years from Frankie Montas, Matt Olson, and Matt Chapman while also hoping the guys in their rotation take more steps forward. That said, they may have the most talent in the AL West. The Astros replaced Justin Verlander (out for the year due to Tommy John surgery) with Jake Odorizzi, which is a pretty steep drop. They went from being pitching rich to having Zack Greinke as their only true frontline starter. They're banking on Lance McCullers Jr to be as good as he's been in the past and for some of their younger arms to step up. Their line-up still can score runs but a lot of their core guys declined in 2020 and they let George Springer walk away in free agency to Toronto and didn't replace him. Aside from swooping in last minute and re-signing Michael Brantley, the Astros basically did nothing this offseason. It's clear they think guys like Altuve, Bregman, Correa, and Alvarez will have huge comeback seasons but they'll need those guys to really produce to have a shot at October and a deep run in the playoffs. But just like the Rays and Indians are good at finding pitching, the Astros are good at finding ways to win. You can insert cheating jokes here, but the truth is, the Astros do know how to win so it wouldn't be surprising to see them compete for the division title with the A's the entire season. Unlike years past, the Mariners and Angels both could prove to be challengers if things break right for them. The Mariners have seemed on the cusp of being a surprise team the last season or two and this season they could hover around .500 long enough to be legit wildcard threats. They welcomed back James Paxton who can be a legitimate ace if he stays healthy and they can pair him with surprisingly effective Marco Gonzales to form a pretty good 1-2 punch atop the rotation. The line-up has a lot of youth but that means there's breakout potential everywhere. Kyle Lewis is the reigning AL Rookie fo the Year, Evan White has untapped talent, and M's fans are waiting and dreaming on Jarred Kelenic. Mitch Haniger was going to be a stud before injuries set him back but he still has that potential now that he's fully healthy. The M's might still be a year away, but they could surprise people this season for real. As for the Angels, even if you're not an Angels fan, it's frustrating to see All-World outfielder Mike Trout go season after season without sniffing the playoffs. The team has tried to surround him with talent but it just hasn't worked out. Ohtani hasn't been healthy enough to pitch, Rendon was a nice add, but the Angels have always needed pitching and frontline starters which they just can't seem to find or land. It's hard seeing them being a factor this year but if things break right, they could be in the wildcard hunt. Having Trout and Rendon is a nice 3-4 in the line-up and if their prospects bust out like Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh, and Jared Walsh then they could be interesting. Of course, if Ohtani can stay healthy for a full season as a DH and starting pitcher, it will make things much better for them. The Rangers are trying to rebuild and reload at the same time, but it looks like they're slowly giving into the full rebuild plan and it would be surprising if they sniffed .500 this season.

A look at the NL East: First things first, the Marlins made the playoffs in 2020. The fricking Marlins! That says more about the rest of the division than it does the Fish, and it's highly unlikely Miami comes close to contending in a full 162 game season, but they're not the slouches they used to be. The Marlins have a sneaky strong rotation and enough talent in the line-up to score some runs, headlined by Starling Marte, who they traded for at last season's trade deadline and actually paid to keep! The Marlins were scrappy as hell in 2020 and broke their 17 year playoff drought and the future is bright in Miami but it's hard to see them compete with the other talent in the division in 2021. The Braves may be the third best NL team on paper. They should have been in the World Series last year, but they totally biffed it, but this offseason they did improve their rotation depth and the core of their team is young and right smack in the middle of their prime. The bullpen centers around whether or not Will Smith can bounceback to be an effective closer but the Braves have talent across the board and barring any catastrophic injuries, should be favorites to repeat as division champions. However, the Mets and Nationals may have something to say about that. The Mets made waves this offseason first by transitioning to a new owner who (gasp!) actually wants to spend money on the team and try to win! An NYC team owner who actually wants to make the Mets into a winner, something that should be automatic in the #1 U.S. market? Upon the owner transition, the Mets immediately traded for superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor and above average starter (when healthy) Carlos Carrasco. Mets fans were still pissed the Mets failed to sign Trevor Bauer or any other big name free agent, but the Mets stock is rising. With deGrom, the NL's most consistent frontline starter, still heading the rotation, and Noah Syndergaard coming back midseason and Marcus Stroman, Taijuan Walker, and eventually Carrasco when he heals from a hamstring injury joining him, the Mets have the firepower to be a force in October if they can make it there. The offense is steady and adding Lindor gives them a Gold Glove defender at shortstop as well as a 20/20 threat atop the line-up. McNeil and Lindor can get on base for powerful first baseman Pete Alonso to drive home. It should be an exciting year in Queens. The Mets missed the playoffs last season but 2021 might be their year to get back for the first time since 2016. The Nationals are an enigma. Coming off their first World Series title, the Nats tied for last (with the Mets) in the East last season. Strasburg had issues, Scherzer had issues, Corbin had issues, so the strength of the team (the rotation) sort of crumbled, as did the team. The first year post-Rendon was not fun for Washington fans. They're banking on a return to form from Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin as well as effective innings from Jon Lester. If they get that, they can compete. They signed star closer Brad Hand to help the bullpen and while the line-up will still miss Rendon, they got big power with the signing of Kyle Schwarber and the trade for Pirates 1B Josh Bell. Plus, they still have Juan Soto, who is a favorite pick for NL MVP in 2021. The Nats should be in the thick of the division and wildcard hunt in 2021, a nice bounceback after the 2020 World Series hangover season. I perpetually doubt the Phillies and they usually prove me right. This year is no different. While they re-signed JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorius and still have Bryce Harper, I don't think the Phillies have what it takes to dethrone the top 3 teams. The Phils could threaten for a wildcard slot however, but they really need their rotation to pitch to its potential. Specifically, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler need to stay healthy and be frontline starters because the rest of the rotation has issues. Any team that employs Matt Moore as a legitimate rotation guy right now can't be taken seriously. 

A look at the NL Central: They should maybe, at least this season, call this division the NL Cheapskates. Okay, that's a bit harsh because the Cardinals did pony up and trade for Giants nemesis Nolan Arenado to pair up with ex-Giants nemesis Paul Goldschmidt, but overall the NL Central teams cried poor this offseason and did little to nothing to really improve. The Pirates embraced their full rebuild and traded away Josh Bell and Jameson Taillon. They are lightyears away from being a factor in the NL as of now. The Reds, after making the playoffs in 2020 for the first time since 2013, decided it was a good time to stop trying. They let Trevor Bauer go (which was expected), traded away closer Raisel Inglesias, let starter Anthony DeSclafani and backup catcher Curt Casali walk (to the Giants, thank you), but also entertained trade offers for co-aces Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray. Right now they're still with Cincinnati but we'll see after July. They had a huge hole at shortstop and failed to address it, instead opting to move third baseman Eugenio Suarez there. In fact, they'll likely trot out a team that has a bunch of guys playing positions they're not very good at, and in a ballpark that favors offense, giving teams extra outs isn't ideal. The Reds offense can still be above average, but their defense might be brutal, and the rotation went from being way above average to being merely good. The bullpen could be good or bad. In any other division, the Reds would likely have no chance but they play in a division where no one seemed to want to put themeselves over the top. Look at the Cubbies, they were perennial contenders. This offseason they traded away ace Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, let Jon Lester go, and then turned around and signed guys like Joc Pederson and Jake Arrieta. It feels like the Cubs were re-arranging chairs on the Titanic. That being said, they're basically running it back. They didn't trade Willson Contreras, Javier Baez, or Kris Bryant yet though they were all rumored to be on the block. It seems like the Cubs are going to try to have one more run with the core of their team that helped them win the World Series in 2016. Like with the Reds, you shrug and think in this division, why not? The Cardinals and Brewers are the two teams that seem like they should be the favorites for the division crown however. The Cards re-signed their ancient franchise cornerstones in Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina which felt inevitable even as they negotiated with other teams, and the trade for Nolan Arenado is huge for them. The Cardinals always seem to stress the right things, be it defense and fundamentals, and like the Astros, they seem to know how to win. Despite the move for Arenado though and their re-signings, the Cardinals did little to get better. They are putting a lot of faith in the offense to be good enough and did nothing to augment their rotation. They always seem to find a way, but they might not have enough to earnestly compete this year. The Brewers are the biggest benefactors of the division doing nothing. They had a truly awful season offensively in 2020, with Christian Yelich struggling immensely in particular. The Brew Crew will count on his bounceback, along with several others, to have a line-up that can score enough runs to augment a pretty good pitching staff. The biggest development in 2020 may have been Corbin Burnes's emergence as another frontline starter for them to pair with Brandon Woodruff. Behind those two potential co-aces, they have Brett Anderson, JP Houser, and Freddy Peralta. Peralta, in particular, has breakout potential, but they will need consistent innings from others beyond Woodruff and Burnes to keep pace. The bullpen is anchored by Josh Hader and Devin Williams and it's hard to think of a more dominating pair of relievers in baseball. The Brewers also went out and signed Jackie Bradley Jr and Kolten Wong to improve their defense (and add speed on the basepaths) and have Lorenzo Cain back. This is the reason the Brewers should be good enough to win the title in a blah NL Central, they have enough power, speed, defense, and pitching to make for an all around decent team in a division that lacks another standout. 

A look at the NL West: As a Giants fan, it sucks to see arguably the best two teams in the National League come from the same division. That is what's happening in 2021 and potentially may be the case moving forward for the next couple of seasons. In last year's predictions, I hated on the Padres for always allegedly having young talent and being on the brink of big things but it never coming together for a playoff run. Well, the Padres proved me wrong last year. Fernando Tatis Jr exploded onto the scene as a full blown superstar and instantly became one of the best players in baseball and San Diego were one of the most fun and exciting teams to watch in 2020. They gave the Dodgers a scare in the division but unfortunately, injuries hit them at the wrong time, and they couldn't capitalize in October. They got even more stacked after an offseason where they traded for Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Joe Musgrove to add to a rotation that already had Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack, and one day in 2022, Mike Clevinger in it, as well as one of the game's top prospects Mackenzie Gore. The Padres could be very good for the next several seasons and there is no getting around that rotation, it's elite in a variety of different combinations. Any rotation that has Musgrove and Paddack as the worst starters in it is a very good rotation. When projecting the 2022 rotation, the Padres could legitimately have 5 guys in it that are frontline number one or number two starters. Not to be outdone, the Dodgers went out and signed the best stating pitcher on the market in Trevor Bauer. Bauer is the perfect Dodger, he is a complete toolbag, full of arrogance and swagger, and will give Giants fans someone to truly hate in the blue and white for the first time since, well, Cody Bellinger and his half baked eyes and Max Muncy and his "fetch it in the ocean" smugness. Okay, the Dodgers are still totally hateable and Bauer just adds a new villain, but Corey Seager was ridiculous last season and if there's any Dodger envy here, it's only for hoping Seager is wearing black and orange next season instead. Los Angeles also retained their heart and soul man, Justin Turner, while letting Joc Pederson and Kiké Hernandez leave via free agency. Overall, the division should be a dog fight between the two Southern California teams. Left in the dust will be the Giants, Dbacks, and Rockies. Of those three, the Rockies look ticketed for last place. They traded away their franchise icon in Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story and German Marquez likely await the same fate in due time. Colorado made almost zero moves in the offseason and seem to be gearing up for a full fledged rebuild after Story departs. That leaves the Giants and Dbacks vying for third place. With Zac Gallen out for an undetermined amount of time, the leg up has to go to San Francisco. As sad as it is to say this, letting Madison Bumgarner walk at the end of 2019 looks to have been a very smart move by Farhan and Co. Bumgarner was awful in his first season with Arizona and has been topping out at 89 MPH this spring. He'll be the Dbacks Opening Day starter and while Giants fan will root for him to not go the route of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, i.e. Giant fan favorites who fell off a cliff almost instantly, we'll take solace that if he does, it'll be with a division rival. The Dbacks also did next to nothing this offseason, setting up the Giants as the de facto winners of 3rd place in the NL West. The Giants are going with the high risk/high reward starting rotation and return an offense that was a top 10 unit last season that added versatile Tommy La Stella to it. The 2021 season will mostly be about playing out the veteran contracts of Posey, Belt, Crawford, Cueto, and Solano and seeing if the rotation or bullpen yields valuable trade pieces like Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman, Matt Wisler, Jose Alvarez, etc at the trade deadline. Giants fans will also look forward to the eventual debut of outfielder Heliot Ramos and potentially some less heralded pitchers and the return of Tyler Beede from Tommy John. If everything breaks right for SF, they could be sneaky wildcard contenders, but it's hard to see them contending with the second tier of NL teams for the full 162.

2021 Awards Predictions

AL MVP: Mike Trout, Angels ( I'm alwayas picking Mike Trout in his prime)

NL MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres

AL CYA: Gerrit Cole, Yankees

NL CYA: Jacob deGrom, Mets

AL ROY: Andrew Vaughn, White Sox

NL ROY: Dylan Carlson, Cardinals