Hard to do, I know, but let's pretend 2021 never happened. Or, maybe an easier exercise, let's go back to the beginning of the 2021 season. Remember those times? The Giants were predicted to be several games under .500 in the prognostications. They were targeted for a 3rd or 4th place finish behind the NL West dominating Dodgers and the upstart, flashy Padres. They had just had an offseason where they signed guys like Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, and Dom Leone. Logan Webb was an unknown. He was either going to be a rotation stalwart for years to come if he could harness his stuff or he could become an effective reliever. Kevin Gausman was the hands down ace but no one was sure if 2020 was a fluke or not. The bats? Pshhh. They picked up some scrub named LaMonte Wade Jr., otherwise the big offensive move was Buster Posey coming back after a year off. Oh, and Curt Casali would back him up after Joey Bart whiffed on his 2020 audition. That was it. Those were the big moves. The Giants had just missed the playoffs by one game in 2020 and the hope was, if everything broke right, they could be a .500-ish club that contended for the wildcard deep into the season.
Then 2021 happened and everything did break right but instead of competing for a wildcard, they won a franchise high 107 games and the NL West division title. Insanity.
Here in 2022, the 2021 season feels like a fever dream and perhaps it was. Remember the exercise, we are supposed to be forgetting the 2021 season happened the way it did. We're starting from scratch.
With those lenses on, how would we feel about the 2022 season? It'd be hard to be surprised or even unhappy with where the Giants currently stand. They are 54-57 and a .500 finish seems possible. The 7.5 game disadvantage in the wildcard standings maybe would feel insurmountable, but hey, finishing at .500 or above... that's something the 2023 Giants would be able to build on, right? Especially with their improving farm system expected to graduate solid ballplayers and potential stars in the next couple of seasons? The plan, all along we were not directly told but assumed, was for the team to ride out its veteran contracts and then build around a new homegrown core and augment them with some solid players or pitchers in free agency. They'd have gobs of money to spend and a young, exciting group of homegrown players. Giants fans hated sucking so much against LA and were jealous of the Slam Diego Padres, but at least there was a plan that looked to be coming along as, well, planned.
In that light, the 2022 season is happening exactly as was intended and planned for except for one major glaring difference. The farm system is not providing a beacon of light. This was Joey Bart and Heliot Ramos's year to shine. This was the year they were going to become fixtures in the Giants line-up and maybe even possibly it was going to be Seth Corry and Sean Hjelle joining Logan Webb in the rotation to begin the emergence of a Giants rebirth of youth. Logan Webb has kept up his end of the deal, not only becoming a rotation stalwart, but emerging as one of the better young pitchers in the game and an indisputable ace. The rest? Yikes. Joey Bart has shown signs of late of becoming at least the player the Giants hoped he would be. Now they'll have to see if he can sustain it. More importantly, it will be important for the Giants to see if Joey Bart can stay healthy. Fair or not, Bart has had a myriad of injuries that have stalled his development. Some are not his fault, but nevertheless, more than anything, getting consistent AB's is a key factor for young players to evolve and get better. As soon as he began his hot hitting at the major league level, he got an ankle injury. It shouldn't keep him out long, but any cool off period has to be dismaying for a guy who was just starting to believe he belongs. Seth Corry? Injured and ineffective the last two seasons. Heliot Ramos? He got a taste of MLB action this season but has fallen off a cliff in hitter friendly Sacramento. That's not great if you're banking on prospects like Ramos to be part of your next core. Right now, he's looking more like a bust. Granted, he is still young and can turn it around next season, but in the present, in 2022, Ramos doesn't look like "a dude". The whole implosion of the Giants top 30 prospects should be cause not just for alarm, but for panic. If the whole goal was to draft and develop your own stars so you could skirt the free agency or trade market to find them instead, the Giants sure look like they're not succeeding on that path. As much as everyone raves about the future of Marco Luciano, he's a young kid in Single-A who missed two months of the 2022 season to injury. You have to crawl before you walk and walk before you run. Right now Marco Luciano is still at the crawling section. His injury will likely keep him from AA this year, a disappointing outcome for lots of reasons. Every other top 30 prospect not named Kyle Harrison has had either lost seasons due to injuries or disappointing seasons in terms of performance. I implore you to go through the Giants Top 30 and find bright spots among any of them. It's really difficult. That's not the results you want in Year 4 of your "not-rebuild" by a new regime. Sure, if you remember what actually happened in 2021, then the results of the 2022 MLB season are monstrously grotesque and disappointing, but if the MLB results were what they are but the minor league players were collectively crushing it, or even a handful were breaking out, then Giants fans could grit their teeth a bit yet still have optimism for 2023.
That's not happening. Given everything that has actually happened, it's hard to feel good about anything in 2022 and it's starting to become a chore to even envision positives for a 2023 season. The Dodgers actually did not wind up with Juan Soto, which is a win. The Padres did, however, and that's like celebrating you were named as an alternate on the Olympic Team. You get to see all the action, but you don't get to participate. The Giants are going to see plenty of Juan Soto the next 2.5 seasons. They could see a whole lot more of him if the Padres manage to extend him and keep him, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr together for several years. We know the Dodgers won't stop adding stars any time soon and they already have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman locked up together for the next half decade at least. The scary part is the Dodgers are going to have even more money to spend this offseason. Could we see Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts join Betts and Freeman? Maybe they just keep Trea Turner? Maybe they steal away from a different AL East rival and snag Aaron Judge. The Dodgers are running away with the NL's best record and it's scary to think they could actually easily improve their roster this offseason.
Which leaves the Giants and where they currently stand. This team is where we all thought they would be in 2021. They have a team that is old and slow. The difference is that their veterans, specifically Belt and Crawford, had such good years in 2021 that the Giants were happy and compelled to bring them back on short term deals (which makes Farhan, Scott Harris, and ownership very happy). That meant because Belt and Crawford didn't perform as expected in 2021, the Giants didn't even have to pretend to be interested in Carlos Correa or Freddie Freeman this past offseason. The fans love their homegrown dudes and the homegrown dudes had career years. Everyone was fine with both Craw and Belt coming back. Excited even. It should have been expected they'd see some regression but they, like Heliot Ramos, have fallen off a cliff. It's mid-August. Belt and Crawford have combined for 13 home runs and 57 RBI. In August. There's 6 weeks of the season left. For perspective, last year they combined for 53 home runs and 149 RBI. Again, entering into the 2021 season, no one would have been surprised by these 2022 numbers. In fact, if they had these numbers in 2021, neither Crawford or Belt likely are even Giants in 2022. Yet here we are. The 2022 Giants are exactly who we thought the 2021 Giants were going to be. The old guys can't stay healthy. When they are rarely healthy, they're putting up mediocre at best numbers. The best "vet" of them all is probably Evan Longoria and he's only played in 81 games this season. The defense has suffered big time. Again, in the real 2021, the Giants defense was really stout. So was the bullpen. In 2022, the defense is beyond porous, as is the bullpen. The bullpen was mostly a question mark going into the 2021 season but it emerged as one of the best in the league. Could that have been predicted? Probably not. Nothing about 2021 could have really been predicted. Sadly, a lot of 2022 could have been forecasted and predicted. It just took an extra year to show itself.
We're at the point of the season where you try to find positives. The playoffs are a long shot and if you watch this team daily, you know in reality it's a pipe dream. The bullpen can't be fixed in the next 6 weeks and the defense is what it is at this point. There is no calvary coming from the minor leagues or via trade. That was evident when Farhan Zaidi and Scott Harris botched the trade deadline bigly. Now, they just play out the string. And then what? There's going to be major turnover with this roster. Longoria may retire. His option will be declined regardless. Wilmer Flores will be a free agent. So will Dom Leone. Carlos Rodon will for sure opt-out of his 2023 option. Belt will be a free agent. The ones that will remain will not get fans excited. Crawford coming back for his final season after a terrible season on both sides of the ball? Nope. JD Davis? Meh, he's a younger Darin Ruf. Another up and down year from Yaz? Another year of Slater kind of sort of breaking out but not really? LaMonte Wade trying to show 2021 wasn't a fluke versus 2022 being a reality? I don't even care to find out. The rotation will be back intact besides Rodon. Maybe that's where the Giants go large in the offseason. There are a few arms out there the Giants could splurge on because they fit the Farhan model -- short term, high annual value. Forget Rodon, he's going to get a contract similar to Gausman or Robbie Ray. Justin Verlander could be had on a 2-3 year deal probably. Jacob deGrom is dead set on opting out of his deal and becoming a free agent. These are the types of guys the Giants love -- elite arms on short term deals. Unfortunately, as the Giants have found out way too often lately, it takes two to tango, and why would Verlander or deGrom leave their current situations for the Giants? If they do choose to leave, they'll undoubtedly have other, more appealing teams to choose from instead of a Giants team that looks locked into 3rd place and fighting for a wildcard in the near term. It's not an enviable situation to be in for the front office. They will be under pressure to compete with LA and SD without having the means to do so. I mean, yes, they will have money to spend, but there will only be a handful of difference makers on the market and again, they don't have a lot to present to a free agent to woo them to the team. As for that pipeline of talent in the farm? It's looking dicey.
But the positives! I keep forgetting about the positives. If the Giants can take away anything from 2022, it's that Joey Bart might be the guy they thought. Thairo Estrada is perfectly fine as a bat first 2B and at worst, a solid utility infielder. His defense at SS is better than 2B, but he's a good Giant and he's a good little player. A find. Camilo Doval is starting to embrace the closer's role and starting to believe in his new 2-seamer and cutter as alternatives to his killer slider. Webb proved he is an ace. Kyle Harrison is rightfully gaining hype as THE best LHP in the minors. That's no small thing even if everyone else in the system is sucking. If Harrison could become a Rodon to pair with Webb for years to come at relatively affordable rates, that's a big win. Then again, the Dodgers and Padres will still remain in their division so... but hey, this is supposed to be the positive section.
At this point, all you can do is hope for a .500 or slightly better season. Some will say to tank for a higher draft pick, but given the track record of this regime drafting, are we sure it matters? My best advice is just forget the real 2021 happened. If you do that, it makes 2022 a little more bearable, even though still disappointing given the farm system. Shrug. I don't know what to tell ya. Maybe it's time for a group hug.
Comments
Post a Comment