Do the Giants Have a Free Agent Problem?

When was the last time the San Francisco Giants signed a notable free agent? Go ahead, I'll wait. 

(Jeopardy theme song plays)

Ok, pencils down. If you waged thousands of dollars on Barry Bonds, congratulations!! You just gave me all your money! You were half right. It was a Barry. Barry Zito. Remember him? He helped the Giants win a World Series title in 2012. Yes, he was also left off the 2010 playoff roster altogether and had a collective 63-80 record in the orange and black and a barely mediocre 4.62 ERA (4.61 FIP) and 1.44 WHIP.  All that for 126 Meellion Dollars. Of course, flags fly forever, and, while not quite as passionate and full of vitriol as the Belt Wars, Giants fans will argue whether that 7yr/126M investment was all redeemed by one magical October run by Zeets or that it was still unforgivable. All that is neither here nor there, it's to prove a point. There's one reason Barry Zito wound up donning a Giants uniform at all and it's not exactly because the Giants really really wanted him. It's because they were desperate. Barry Bonds was entering his last season under contract with the expectation he was going to chase the home run record then be allowed to walk off into the sunset (or to another team, had he not been effectively blackballed). All the steroid stuff was a PR nightmare for the Giants and they needed a new face of the franchise to replace Bonds. Giants fans hoped that guy would be Alfonso Soriano, who was the prize free agent that offseason. There was some talk about Gary Matthews Jr. Maybe even Aramis Ramirez. The Giants didn't get any of those guys and in a panic, they went big after Zito. They were determined to make a splash in the 2006-2007 offseason and they eventually did, signing Zito to what was the biggest free agent pitcher contract in baseball history. Again, you can argue whether it paid off or not. The Giants won 2 legit World Series titles (2 more than the Dodgers have had since 1988) despite Zito's overall underperformance and albatross of a contract. 

Not only that, but the following offseason, the Giants doubled down and signed a centerfielder with middling skills to a 5 year 60 MEELLION dollar contract. Thank you for your service Aaron Rowand. It's hard to imagine a team committing approximately 30M a year to two guys who were very very underwhelming while still managing not only to be relatively successful as a team, but actually able to win 2 championships! Rowand was DFA'd in 2011, but the Giants still had him on the books in 2012 meaning both Zito and Rowand were on the 2010/2012 ledgers. The Giants managed to win those championships almost entirely because they had a young core of homegrown cheap talent. Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Posey, Wilson, Romo, Crawford, Belt, etc., you know the names. Having these very solid, if not elite ballplayers anchoring the team afforded the team its ability to win despite Rowand and Zito's onerous contracts. 

But let's dive a bit deeper. Why did Zito and Rowand sign with San Francisco in the first place? Hint: It wasn't for the Cha Cha bowls and the garlic fries. It was, shockingly, because the Giants offered them the most money and it wasn't apparently close (though Scott Boras still contends the Mets were a true competitor for Zito). And in regards to hitters only, then yes, if your first inclination was that Barry Bonds was the last notable hitter the Giants signed, then you'd be right, but even then it's not like Bonds gave the team a hometown discount. The new ownership led by Peter Magowan wanted to make a splash once they acquired the team and "saved" baseball in San Francisco and they did so by bringing home the local kid who's godfather and father both played for the Giants and where the Bay Area was home. At the end of the day, free agents are very basic with their needs, no matter what they say publicly. No statement has ever been more true than from this fictional movie:

When you look at the historical trend since Pacific Bell/SBC/AT&T/Oracle Park has existed, one thing has been proven over and over again, free agent HITTERS do not really want to play 81 games there. Bonds was the exception because it was home. Unless the Bay Area starts producing Hall of Famers every few years, that's not a bankable strategy for signing free agents. It might not even work this offseason with Aaron Judge, the biggest free agent hitter on the market who, like Bonds, also has local ties. If the Giants can't land Judge this offseason, then what hope is there? They have the money to spend (and of course it'll take being the highest offer to sign Judge regardless) and they have the hometown angle. If Judge spurns them to stay in New York, is it really reasonable to assume the Giants will shift gears and sign Carlos Correa? Or Trea Turner? Or Xander Bogaerts? I mean, sure, they'll try. Will they be successful? Not unless they massively overpay. What we've seen with the Giants is that, all things being equal, free agents will not willingly choose to come to San Francisco unless a) the Giants overpay or b) there are no better alternatives. That's it. And unlike when the Giants signed Zito and Rowand, the prospect assembly line isn't exactly graduating future cornerstones. Are free agents going to look at David Villar and be like, "yeah, he's going to protect me in the line-up for multiple seasons!". No. The Giants can point to Casey Schmitt as a guy who can be in the line-up as soon as 2023 but other than Schmitt, who is there on the cusp of being an MLB regular? Don't you dare say Marco Luciano! He's played one game at the AA level (a playoff game) and is starting to have very troubling back issues consistently. Could he still be a star in the waiting? Sure. Could he be a bust? Absolutely. Will Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa want to sign a massive long term deal with SF to find out? Probably not. 

This begets another problem. If the Giants can't draft and develop their own stars, which was likely Farhan's master plan when he took over, then they're either going to have to spend big on free agents or miss out on star level talent. We saw with the Juan Soto trade talks the Giants farm system is not highly looked upon by other franchises at present. If the Giants can't develop a pipeline of solid talent, they can't graduate that talent to the MLB level or use them in trade packages for younger stars that noncompetitive teams are willing to trade. This is the current regimes biggest failure thus far and most likely why Pete Putila was hired as GM. The Giants absolutely need to nail their draft picks and churn out cheap, affordable, controllable every day regulars. Right now the current team has Webb, Doval, and maybe Estrada and Villar. Free agents are going to look at that and say, thanks but no thanks. 

Finally, the Giants must also be viewed by outside players as in limbo. The current team, as presently constructed, doesn't have a lot to show for itself. The 2021 team that won 107 games? Posey is retired, Gausman is a Blue Jay, Belt and Longoria are free agents, and Crawford had a terrible year and will be a free agent after next season. I'm just not sure what the Giants can sell free agents on. It doesn't help they play in a division with the Dodgers and Padres who both are oozing with star level talent. On top of that, San Francisco has a reputation for being cold and windy and tough for hitters to produce big numbers. These things are important to star level players who may have an eye on All Star bonuses and, even bigger, Hall of Fame aspirations. Aaron Judge can mash home runs in any ballpark and Oracle is friendlier to righties than lefties, but Yankee Stadium is much more friendly. Carlos Correa played in a relatively neutral home park last season in Minnesota, but he called Minute Maid Park home for the rest of his career. No surprise his power numbers were down in his first year away from Houston. He may prefer a more hitter friendly park for a long term contract.

But, free agents are basic. At the end of the day, they want money, money, money, and more money. If the Giants are serious about landing a superstar, they're going to have to go above and beyond to sign one. They whiffed on Bryce Harper. Let's see if they whiff on Aaron Judge or one of the big shortstops. History indicates that they will indeed not land a big name hitter. History also shows they'll turn around and then give a monster contract to a pitcher instead. Maybe Carlos Rodon will re-sign after all... for 8yrs/200M.