Opening Day is nearly a week away so it's time for my prognostications for the 2023 season. My predictions were so bad last year I am not even going to recap them, which I usually do, but if you're curious you can view them here. My only redemption is I got the AL West standings completely right. Oof.
One of these years I am going to have the perfect predictions. Or not. But maybe this year can be the year. So without further ado, here are my 2023 MLB predictions...
As always, division winners bolded and wildcards italicized.
AL East: Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, Orioles, Red Sox
AL Central: White Sox, Twins, Guardians, Royals, Tigers
AL West: Astros, Mariners, Angels, Rangers, A's
NL East: Phillies, Braves, Mets, Marlins, Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals, Brewers, Cubs, Reds, Pirates
NL West: Padres, Giants, Dodgers, Dbacks, Rockies
Best Records: Blue Jays, Phillies
2nd Best Records: Astros, Padres
AL Wildcard: Yankees over Mariners, White Sox over Twins
NL Wildcard: Giants over Cardinals, Mets over Braves
ALDS: Blue Jays over White Sox, Astros over Yankees
NLDS: Phillies over Mets, Padres over Giants
ALCS: Blue Jays over Astros
NLCS: Padres over Phillies
World Series: Padres over Blue Jays
AL MVP: Shohei Ohtani, Angels
NL MVP: Trea Turner, Phillies
AL Cy Young: Dylan Cease, White Sox
NL Cy Young: Julio Urias, Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles
NL Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll, Dbacks
A look at the AL East: Your division is really good when the non-rebuilding Red Sox are being picked to finish 4th or 5th and the no longer rebuilding Orioles are on the upswing and expected to be competitive. The Yankees and Rays have taken the AL East the last four seasons, but this year it'll be up for grabs. The Rays are always sneaky good and while I have them missing the playoffs altogether, they could just as easily win the division, especially if Tyler Glasnow and Shane McClanahan can be co-aces at the top of the rotation, but it depends on Glasnow's health. The Rays offense never looks pretty on paper but somehow they always seem to get the job done enough to win ballgames. Look for Wander Franco to start showing his immense talent and for the Rays to be in the thick of the divisional and wildcard races all season. The Yankees made two big moves this offseason, re-signing Aaron Judge and then signing Carlos Rodon. Judge is the reigning MVP and will look to replicate his historic 2022 season. Rodon gives the Yankees a co-ace to pair with Gerrit Cole and the Yankees rotation in general should be a strength for them if they can stay healthy. The line-up has some question marks but should score enough runs to back the pitching staff. The Orioles rebuild ended sooner than expected with the O's finishing above .500 last season and they will look to continue to add young prospects to a roster that should be fun again in 2023. Baltimore probably didn't do enough this offseason to make a true run at the division but it's likely they can hang around the wildcard race, especially if rookie Gunnar Henderson is everything he's expected to be and Adley Rutschman doesn't have a sophomore slump. The Red Sox are a bit confusing. They were on track to have an awful offseason until they signed their star Rafael Devers to a monster extension. They also added to the roster, taking a big gamble on Japanese import Masataka Yoshida, while also signing former Dodger stalwarts Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner. They also added the non-Coldplay version of Chris Martin, got big bopper Adam Duvall, and oft-injured former ace Corey Kluber. The Red Sox decided to spread the money around outside of the Devers extension and it'll be interesting to see how they mesh in 2023. Chris Sale's health is imperative to be contenders. If things don't break right, the Red Sox could be sellers in July. Trevor Story is already banged up and expected to miss a lot of time and the Boston line-up beyond Devers really doesn't look very imposing at all, unless Triston Casas can be an immediate impact bat. Their starting pitching, if it could get fully healthy, would be intriguing because they do have a trio of former aces in Sale, Kluber, and James Paxton that, if they rediscovered their ace form, would make Boston a bit more formidable. However, a lot would have to go right in Bean Town for the Red Sox to truly contend. The Blue Jays have all the pieces in place to be a juggernaut. They were prediction darlings last season (I had them winning the World Series) and they may sneak up on some people this season as they're being somewhat overlooked in the division race. They have all the hitting they need to score plenty of runs and their rotation has good velocity at the top of it with newly proven ace Alek Manoah pairing with Kevin Gausman. They're expecting a bounceback from former ace Jose Berrios and good years from Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. Hyun Jin Ryu could come back in time for a pennant run which would be like acquiring a decent starting pitcher at the deadline. The Blue Jays just need to go out and do it on the field. They have a great combination of hitters who can hit for power, hit for contact, and run a bit and they just need to keep improving to get to where they want to be.
A look at the AL Central: The AL Central will be an interesting division to watch this season because any of the Twins, Guardians, or White Sox could claim the division title. Each team has its flaws as well as its strengths. The Guardians came out of nowhere to win the division last season, but they won't be surprising people in 2023. I believe some regression should be in store for Cleveland, which will open the door for the Twins or White Sox to win the division title. The Twins just need to stay healthy for a full season. They got unexpected fortune when the Giants and the Mets both got scared away from Carlos Correa's physical, allowing Minnesota to sneak back in and re-sign their star shortstop. The hitters surrounding Correa aren't the best collection so the Twins will have to hope for some luck on the offensive side of the ball to truly contend. However, their pitching staff is deeper than it's been in awhile, especially their starters. If Kenta Maeda can make it back healthy, the Twins have a good collection of solid starters that can give the team a chance to win on any given day. They added former Marlins ace Pablo Lopez and have last year's trade deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle to go with Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan to round out their starting five. Overall, the Twins should be good enough to contend for the wildcard and division, but it feels like the White Sox may be better overall. The White Sox have their own young ace in Dylan Cease who is joined by quality starters Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito to form a solid trio atop the South Side's rotation. Michael Kopech and perhaps Mike Clevinger, who's dealing with domestic abuse issues, round out the starting staff and should be plenty good enough for an offense that underperformed in a lot of ways last season. Just as the Guardians may regress, the White Sox may progress after a disappointing 2022. Any team with Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, and Tim Anderson on it has the capability to be good. The Guardians did buck the trend of modern baseball by having high contact, low strike out guys and pitch and catch the baseball very well. The Guardians are a very fundamentally sound team but in a league that has prioritized power, Cleveland has little of it. It worked last season but it may be a tall task to repeat that success. Due to this, the Guardians probably do see some offensive regression and get passed by Minnesota and Chicago. The Royals feel like they're in a long rebuild and while Royals fans may hope they can have a '22 Orioles like sneaky good season, an objective observer would have to squint pretty hard to see the current Kansas City roster actually finishing with a winning record, let alone contending for a playoff spot. The Tigers were supposed to be sleepers last season, but instead they took a nap on the entire season. Detroit had a shockingly poor 2022 and the front office went under a regime change because of it. The Tigers prospects didn't perform at the MLB level and the free agent signings were largely a disaster. The new front office seems to be using 2023 as an evaluation year and a chance to let the prospects prove their value once again. It should be another long season for the Motor City.
A look at the AL West: Dusty Baker finally got his World Series parade and as a Giants fan, I am thrilled for him. It was the only thing missing on his resume and now the Astros can claim without a shadow of conspiracy that they are legit World Series champions. They suffered one major loss with Justin Verlander leaving in free agency, but the Astros young rotation is a strength even without Mr. Kate Upton. Although Jose Altuve will miss the first two months of the season with a broken thumb, the rest of the Astros offense is still capable enough to score runs and hold the team afloat in his absence. Kyle Tucker turned into a star in 2022 and Yordan Alvarez continues to be my favorite ex-Dodger who never played a game in LA. The Astros have owned the division since 2017 (minus the COVID year of 2020 when the A's won it) and are favorites to win it again. Giving them a run for their money will be the Seattle Mariners, who broke the sports longest playoff drought in 2022. The Mariners have another homegrown superstar in Julio Rodriguez and hope they can build around him for years to come like they did with Ken Griffey Jr in the 90's. They've done well to build their rotation, trading for ace Luis Castillo last deadline and signing hot and cold ace Robbie Ray last offseason. Logan Gilbert may be an ace in waiting and even the M's back of the rotation arms are quality. They had a deep bullpen last season and return most of those guys in 2023. The line-up was bolstered with a trade for Jays outfielder Teoscar Hernandez and Seattle should have a fun, exciting team that should contend for the top wildcard spot. If you don't feel bad for Angels fans, maybe you should. They got a whiff of hope when owner Arte Moreno informed everyone he was going to sell the team. While Moreno is nowhere near the worst owner in the sport, he's known for meddling and isn't keen on spending past the luxury tax. That's not ideal when you have two of the game's biggest stars but can't find the right combination of talent to surround them with to truly contend. The Angels haven't been to the postseason since 2014 despite having Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. While Trout has been loyal and signed a huge extension to stay in Anaheim, this will likely be Ohtani's final hurrah with the Angels. The team hasn't won enough during his time and he's looking to play for a winner. Unless this Anaheim team can surprise and go deep into the postseason, Angels fans will not only have to deal with Ohtani's departure but also the fact that it will not be Moreno's departure as well, as he rescinded his offer to sell the team indefinitely. The Rangers were offseason darlings this year and last year, having added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray in 2022 and then continuing their spree by signing starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney this offseason. That's a lot of money to spend on a mediocre product overall, however it was enough to lure former Giants legend Bruce Bochy out of retirement. Bochy's team will have to be like his Giants teams, plucky and opportunistic, in order to truly contend in 2023. Right now, they look neck and neck with the Angels as the third best team in the division. The rotation got a lot of press, but there's a whole lot of risk in it. deGrom is oft-injured and Eovaldi has been up and down his career. Jon Gray missed a lot of time last year and Andrew Heaney could be the sponsor for the IL. The offense has a mix of veterans and young guys but it's just a roster that sort of screams mediocre. That being said, if Bochy can work his magic, it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility the Rangers could fight for a wildcard. The same cannot be said about the A's, who are only fighting with the Washington Nationals to be the worst team in baseball. The A's have torn it all down to the studs again. They lost 102 games in 2022 and could be a worse team in 2023. The team needs to figure out if it'll stay in Oakland or leave for Las Vegas. It's not a fun time to be an A's fan at all.
A look at the NL East: The Braves have won the NL East the last five seasons and they should be the favorites to repeat as division champs again, but the Phillies haven't had that distinction since 2011 and are hungry after a surprising World Series run came up short. The Phillies are going to be missing Bryce Harper for half the season, but they signed another MVP talent this offseason in Trea Turner to help ease Harper's loss and once Harper gets healthy, the Phillies line-up looks extremely potent. For a team that punted defense last season, the Phillies got slightly better at last year's deadline with the acquisition of Brandon Marsh and no matter what these Phightin' Phils can hit. It helps that they have two aces atop their rotation in Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola and they added former Met Taijuan Walker to help. The rotation should be good enough, though there is a lack of depth if injuries crop up, especially with top prospect Andrew Painter dealing with a cranky elbow. The bullpen, forever an issue with Philly, seems on paper to be strong going into the 2023 campaign. It's a common theme, but if the Phillies get and stay healthy, they could be a force in the 2nd half and go on another World Series run. The Braves will try to fight them off by being the consistent team they've been for the last several seasons. Is this the year Ronald Acuna Jr regains his MVP type form? Does Austin Riley have another monster season? Can Ozzie Albies bounce back from an injury marred year? The Braves have a very solid line-up and they got better offensively and defensively by trading for A's catcher Sean Murphy. Murphy is a Gold Glover and even though the Braves had two solid catching options already, they went out and brought in Murphy who will stabilize the pitchers and add depth to the line-up. The rotation returns ace Max Fried and up and coming ace Spencer Strider, along with steady presence Charlie Morton. Kyle Wright had a great year in 2022 so Atlanta's rotation appears strong yet again. Raisel Iglesias will be saving games for the Braves this year after getting traded over from the Angels last year, but gone is incumbent closer Kenley Jansen. If the Braves have a weakness, it may be that the bullpen behind Iglesias is a bit uncertain. Regardless, this Atlanta team is still one of the best in the National League, and should be favorites to make a deep postseason run. Hoping to be part of that conversation is the ultra rich Mets. Gone is long time ace Jacob deGrom, but in comes Justin Verlander to pair with his old Tigers buddy Max Scherzer to form a strong, if not ancient, 1-2 atop the rotation. The Mets are betting big on Japanese hurler Kodai Senga and that he'll be able to come in and have instant success as he's likely New York's third starter. Behind him is Carlos Carrasco and either David Peterson or Tylor Megill. Mets fans are already dealing with heartache after elite closer Edwin Diaz got hurt in the World Baseball Classic and will likely miss the entire season. That throws the entire Mets bullpen in flux and could have repercussions in the division, as every win will be valuable in what should be a dog fight between the Phils, Braves, and Mets. New York's line-up missed adding Carlos Correa for the same reason the Giants did and that absence may be felt, although Eduardo Escobar and Brett Baty should be more than fine at 3B. The Mets are a good team on paper right now. A lot is pinned on the hopes of two elder statesman in Scherzer and Verlander. Can they be a great team and make a playoff run worthy of being the top spenders in the sport? TBD. The last two teams in the NL East aren't likely to compete. Miami traded from its surplus of starting pitchers, sending Pablo Lopez to Minnesota for elite contact hitter Luis Arraez but otherwise has had a mild offseason. They brought in vets Jean Segura and Johnny Cueto but otherwise, the Marlins look cooked. They aren't bad enough to lose 90 games but aren't good enough to seriously contend for a wildcard. They're sort of caught in that mid-mediocre area of winning between 70-80 games which isn't great for draft positioning and isn't great for contending. They have all sorts of starting pitching even still and eventually they'll need to start trading it for better position players. Jazz Chisholm is their lone exciting offensive player. The Nationals are going to be awful. From having a star studded roster and a World Series parade in 2019 to having a barely recognizable roster in 2023, the Nats will be in contention for one thing only, potentially the worst record in baseball. They and the A's will be fighting for that title loss by loss.
A look at the NL Central: The St. Louis Cardinals have made their nest in the NL Central, 12 times capturing the divisional title, double their nearest competitor, the Cubs, at 6. The Brewers have been a pest since 2017, finishing 1st or 2nd in each season from then onward, besides the outlier non-actual season of 2020. It's why you can probably write in right now the Cards winning the division and the Brewers coming up just short in 2023. The rest of the division isn't competitive. The Cubs are interesting this year, and certainly could be a surprise team that winds up contending given some of the talent on their roster. For instance, if Seiya Suzuki breaks out this year and Darnsby Swanson delivers the type of season he had in 2022, then the Cubs can surprise people. It just doesn't seem realistic though that the Cubs have enough hitters and enough pitching to truly be a good team. They could hang around .500 all season and maybe make a push, but it feels like some things would have to really go right, like Cody Bellinger remembering he was an MVP or Eric Hosmer remembering he was good for a spell. The Cubs are a hodgepodge of veterans and journeymen both in the line-up and on the pitching staff with only a couple young pieces that you could see as being part of a new great core. It's likely the Cubs will maintain their lovable loser reputation at least in 2023. The Pirates don't have a shot at contention, but they could be fun to watch. O'Neil Cruz could be an electric talent. Ke'Bryan Hayes could evolve into a better player. And it'll be great to see Pirates legend Andrew McCutchen playing again for the Pirates and mentoring his franchise face replacement Bryan Reynolds. Roansy Contreras might develop into a homegrown ace as well so it's not all bad news in the Steel City. The Pirates won't be good, but they could be fun to watch. The Reds? Watching Hunter Greene throw 100 MPH is fun, even if he doesn't know where it's going. Nick Lodolo could be sneaky great. Tyler Stephenson is a solid offensive catcher. Joey Votto is always entertaining. Jonathan India hasn't decided if he's good or not yet. Nick Senzel may never be fully healthy. The rest of the line-up is really iffy. The lone hope for Reds fans is that top prospect Elly De La Cruz is everything he's being hyped to be. Otherwise, Cincy has put together a roster that really is kinda just there to get through the season. The Reds may not be the worst team in baseball, but they're closer to that distinction than a contending club, or even a .500 one. The Brewers have the pitching, as they've had for the last several seasons, and the question will be can they hit enough to win a wildcard spot. They're the latest team to try to make Jesse Winker a thing and if they can, it'll help immensely. The bullpen behind Devin Williams is spotty though so even though Milwaukee should definitely be better than the other 3 teams not named the Cardinals in their division, will it be enough to make the postseason? It'll be close, just like it seemingly is every year with the Brew Crew. The Cardinals have their own flaws, but they also have the highest ceiling in their division. Could Tyler O'Neill bounce back? It wouldn't be surprising. Can Jordan Walker be the next great Cardinals prospect turned star? Wouldn't be surprising. Can Adam Wainwright beat Father Time over and over and be productive and maintain his ace status at 42? Wouldn't be surprising. Can Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt be co-MVPs? Wouldn't be surprising! The Cardinals are the Cardinals. They win all the time. They'll win again in 2023.
A look at the NL West: As a guy who's online persona is SFGiantsGuy and who is notoriously negative on Twitter about them most of the time, the blogs themselves are less emotional and more rational. So it may be insane/crazy that I have them finishing AHEAD of the Dodgers this season. The NL West has been the Dodgers playground for 9 out of the last 10 years. They haven't just won the division, they've scorched it. The divisional races haven't been a race at all except in 2018 when the Rockies of all teams pushed the Dodgers to the brink with the Dodgers winning the division by 1 game then and of course, the magical 2021 season where the Dodgers won 106 games but the Giants won 107. The point is, the Dodgers have been an unstoppable force in the NL West for the last decade and most experts are picking either them or the Padres to win the NL West in 2023. The fact the Padres are getting love tells you how the tides have shifted a little bit. The Padres are now the star studded SoCal team. They defeated the Dodgers in the NLDS last season, finally getting that monkey off their back, and with Fernando Tatis Jr coming back after a year off and with Juan Soto for a full season and with Xander Bogaerts in the fold, and Manny Machado being Manny the Padres look ferocious. The only thing that could really slow them down would be injuries. They're already dealing with ailments from Soto and continued ouchies from Drew Pomeranz and a broken toe for Joe Musgrove. The rotation no longer has much depth beyond their "Big 3" of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Musgrove. They're relying on Michael Wacha who's been up and down his whole career (and who gave up Travis Ishikawa's walkoff in the 2014 NLCS), reliever turned starter Seth Lugo, and swiss army knife Nick Martinez. The bullpen should be a strength, especially in the backend where they'll have Josh Hader for a full season. The Padres have traded a lot of their top prospects in recent seasons so the depth behind the MLB roster is thinned out a bit. The rotation and injuries really are the only things I think could hold them back from running wild in the NL. The Giants had a topsy turvy offseason and even though they didn't land the guys they truly wanted in Aaron Judge or Carlos Correa, they did enough to augment their roster to give them a fighting chance. My reason for a bit of optimism is this: the Giants played really poorly in 2022 and somehow managed to finish right at .500. It's hard to see this team playing just as poorly in 2023 which, by extension, means they should end 2023 with a winning record. I'm a big believer in having aces and right now the Giants only have Webb as a top of the rotation type of starter. You can make an argument for Alex Cobb but I don't buy that hype. I think he's a strong number 3 guy, and he's passable as your number 2, but Carlos Rodon's absence will be felt. Hopefully Kyle Harrison will eventually make Giants fans forget about Rodon but this spring showed Harrison isn't quite ready for prime time just yet. The rest of the rotation has solid, unspectacular guys. It's easy to forget how good Anthony DeSclafani was in 2021 because he was so atrociously bad against the Dodgers and in 2022 but if he is anything close to 2021 form, he's a borderline All Star pitcher (which he was in '21). Alex Wood, Ross Stripling, and Sean Manaea all have succeeded in the past. The bullpen is stronger with Taylor Rogers joining his twin brother Tyler and Camilo Doval looks ready to take an even nastier step as the closer. The offense should be better too with the additions of Michael Conforto, JD Davis for the full season, and Mitch Haniger. The key for the Giants will be health, especially in the outfield, because they don't have much depth there if key guys get hurt (and Haniger and Slater are already hurting). That being said, the Giants as a whole could be better than the sum of their parts and it's not ridiculous to think they can win a good number of games. Which leads me to LA, the division's villain. It was a very odd offseason for LA. A lot of speculation was that they wanted to get under the luxury tax threshold so they could go large for Shohei Ohtani next season but they're over the luxury tax now and the roster is... way less talented than the 2022 team. Granted, the 2022 team was an all timer on paper, but losing Walker Buehler was a huge blow both for the 2022 and 2023 Dodgers. Somehow the 2022 team barely missed a beat without him but they missed him big time during the playoffs. While a lot of people still think the Dodgers are uber talented and have them as favorites to win the division, I'm actually skeptical of them going into the season. Their rotation depth is thin. Julio Urias is going into his walk year (I'm shocked LA hasn't extended him) and behind Urias you have Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Tony Gonsolin, and Dustin May. Gonsolin is already hurt and slated to miss at least a few weeks which leaves minor league prospects like Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, and Bobby Miller to fill in. The Dodgers must have a lot of faith in those guys to be good immediately because it was a bit shocking to see them only sign Noah Syndergaard this offseason given the departures of Tyler Anderson and the injury timeline for Buehler. Snydergaard is the wildcard. If he can regain his ace form, the Dodgers become a much better team. If he's simply just the good, mid rotation type of starter he was last season, then LA's rotation doesn't look too scary. The line-up also took a step backwards. The gauntlet last season of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith has been tempered a bit by the loss of Turner (both Turner's actually). LA is counting on a big bounceback season from Max Muncy and JD Martinez to offset those losses. Their outfield is a work in progress. Gone is Cody Bellinger, in is David Peralta. Is that an upgrade? Maybe? Hard to say. The Dodgers are still going to be good. I'm just not sold on them being really really good and I think this year is the first time in a long time they're vulnerable to not making the playoffs. I'll never count them out, not with their resources, but if the prospects they're giving opportunities to don't pan out quickly, the Dodgers could struggle just a tad more than they're used to offensively and with their starting pitching. The Dbacks are being picked quite a bit as a sleeper team for a wildcard spot and a lot of predictions have them in third place in the NL West above the Giants. I don't buy the hype quite yet. I think the Dbacks are definitely ascending but I don't think they have the starting pitching at the moment to make a real run. Corbin Carroll is going to be really good in this league and the Dbacks, sort of like the Pirates and Orioles, should be fun to watch in 2023. They're going to win a slew of games. I just don't think they're quite ready to make the jump to wildcard or division contenders quite yet. I feel they need one more very good starting pitcher. That being said, the Dbacks do look poised to be a big pest in the NL West for the foreseeable. Dick Monfort, the Rockies owner, gets a lot of flak, deservedly so. But there's something honorable about believing your team is way better than it is while also spending money like a drunken sailor. He doesn't spend A LOT of money, mind you, but he does spend here and there with no rhyme or reason. The Rockies would need nearly everything to break right for them to even fight for .500. Their farm system is on the upswing but isn't quite ready to produce MLB players. The line-up is full of veteran guys who can hit but might be a little past their prime. The rotation though isn't great and the pitching, as usual in Denver, will be the team's downfall. The Rockies probably won't be one one of the worst teams in the NL, but at best they'll be middle of the pack. If they were in the NL Central, they would potentially be a third place team but in the NL West, they'll be lucky to climb out of the basement anytime soon.
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