Evaluating the Giants at the All Star Break

 The Giants suck! Farhan sucks! Kapler is a goober! This team has no plan! Cut Brandon Crawford and bring up Casey Schmitt! Where is Kyle Harrison!? 

Those were the cries in April and the beginning of May. Coming off a very poor-for-the-optics offseason where they endured the great Aaron Judge Whiff and the Carlos Correa Catastrophe, Giants fans were up in arms. There's always the good shepherd fans out there, the ones that choose to see the light through the dark, but even for some of them it was hard. On May 1st, the Giants were 11-17, buried in 4th place, closer to last place than 3rd, and were already a full 5 games back of the first place Dodgers. Their line-up was wildly inconsistent and their offseason sextet of Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, Taylor Rogers, and Luke Jackson were massively underperforming or were hurt or were both underperforming AND hurt. By May 15th, things looked outright bleak and some fans were prepping for a massive selloff at the trade deadline. By then, the Giants were 8.5 games back of the Dodgers, though the messaging was they still had a very good shot at the wildcard, being only 2 games back. But the team didn't look good. They didn't look like a contender. They were 5 games under .500 and they had a minus 24 run differential. The bullpen was a gas can. But there had been a spark. Casey Schmitt had been called up on May 9th and although the Giants still didn't look like world beaters, fans were excited to see one of Farhan Zaidi's first real prospects making an appearance at the major league level. Schmitt started off white hot at the plate and provided dazzling defense on the dirt. After starting May with 7 wins and 7 losses, they finished the month on a 10-5 run. They started playing better. 

By the end of May another Zaidi prospect came up and settled down the catcher position, which had been in flux since Roberto Perez got injured and Joey Bart had resumed his swing and miss ways. Patrick Bailey came up and done nothing but hit and defend and win the trust of his pitchers since. He is legitimately in Rookie of the Year discussions (not to win it, but in the discussion for best rookies). Luis Matos, a Bobby Evans international signing, came up when oft-injured Mitch Haniger got injured on a fluke hit by pitch that broke his arm. At the beginning of the season, the Giants had an old, veteran laden roster. At the All Star break, the roster is littered with rookies who are helping the team win. The upstart May led to a dominant June where the Giants thrust themselves back into postseason contention with an 18-8 record. Now, all the cries the Giants had in the first month and a half of the season? They've been drowned out by applause and cheers for a new emerging core from the farm, complemented with solid play by key veterans like JD Davis, Wilmer Flores, Alex Cobb, and a resurgent Michael Conforto. Mike Yastrzemski is showing flashes of his old self and helping the team in clutch spots and playing great defense. Austin Slater is still crushing lefties. LaMonte Wade Jr, whom most of the fan base wanted discarded this offseason, has adapted to 1B and done his best Brandon Belt impersonation by refusing to go out of the strike zone, whcih has led to a nearly 1:1 walk to strikeout ratio. Camilo Doval and Alex Cobb are All Stars and Logan Webb ended the first half with his first ever complete game, a shutout to boot. He's been a deserving All Star the last three seasons but has yet to gain the accolade. This all sounds like sunshine and rainbows, but the Giants have been one of the most injured teams in the league in the first half. Gone is Mitch Haniger until at least September. Spark plug of the first two months, Thairo Estrada is out until mid-late August. John Brebbia and Luke Jackson, two of the more important short relievers on the club, have missed several weeks. The starting rotation has two legit starters in it, Webb and Cobb, and the other three days is a roulette wheel of Stripling, Manaea, Keaton Winn (another rookie), or an opener with Brebbia (before he was injured) and now Ryan Walker (who's been good in relief, but poor in the opener role). The Giants offense has been up and down. Outside of a 10 game win streak in June, the line-up's performance still fluctuates game to game. The team has a bunch of solid hitters in it, but there's isn't anyone in the line-up that terrifies an opposing pitcher. It says something that Patrick Bailey has batted clean-up several times for this squad. 

Yet, at the All Star break, the Giants are 8 games OVER .500, have the 3rd wildcard slot in hand by themselves (albeit by a half game), and are solidly in second place in the NL West only 2.5 games back of the Dodgers and Dbacks, who are currently tied for 1st. If the playoffs started today, the Giants would be playing against the surprising Cincinnati Reds in the wildcard round. It's been an incredible turnaround. The Giants are now most definitely buyers at the deadline when they looked like sellers two months prior. 

So which team IS the Giants? Are they that troubling team from the first month and a half of the season or are they the solid playoff contender they've been the last month and a half? Given all the injuries, it's incredible they've been able to rally. Their depth has been tested and the younglings have stepped up. Now the rooks are struggling (except Bailey and Tristan Beck) and they need the vets to help bank wins. At the beginning of the year, I predicted the Giants would win a wildcard slot and finish 2nd in the NL West. However, my heart said they were barely better than the 81-81 team of 2022. I thought maybe they were an 84-86 win team. They still feel that way to me at the moment. A good team, but not a great one, and one that would be at risk of just missing the playoffs. The surprising struggles of the Mets and Padres has opened the door a bit, but it's only logical to think those teams will eventually start rolling too. Will the Giants be able to keep up?

I think they can and they will. A lot will be decided at the trade deadline. Will the Dodgers snag Ohtani? The Dodgers haven't looked impressive and have had a ton of their own injuries, yet there they are tied for first place. They will undoubtedly improve their roster by August 1st. What can the Giants do? I'll save that for a later post, but they need help. The rotation is still a huge question mark beyond CobbWebb. None of Anthony DeSclafani, Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea, or Alex Wood shown they deserve to get consistent starts. Kyle Harrison hasn't looked ready in AAA. The Giants need at least one more bonified arm in the rotation and given the rookies development, they may need to address their middle infield with a bigger bat as Schmitt has cooled wildly and Estrada's bat had also gone somewhat cold before his injury. In better news, the bullpen solidified and is now a strength of the team. It will be even better once Brebbia and Jackson come back. 

Most of the NL teams are flawed. Only the Atlanta Braves have raced out to a commanding divisional lead. The NL Central is a mess. The Dbacks have stayed strong all season but they're hearing the footsteps of the Dodgers and Giants. These Giants are playoff contenders as presently constructed, but they definitely need help to make it to October. Their schedule to start the 2nd half is favorable, and they will have to take advantage of it immediately to prove to the front office it's a roster that deserves to be augmented for the better by August 2nd. One thing is for certain, this team is way more exciting and the plan for the future of the franchise has gotten much more clear with the emergence of the young players and the development down on the farm. All the bad feelings of 2022 and a really poor offseason are starting to drift away.